US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missiles, air defenses, and infrastructure in an operation aimed at neutralizing threats, sparking ongoing escalation with Iranian missile and drone barrages on Israel as recently as April 1. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE host US bases now facing retaliatory attacks, fueling trader focus on whether they or others—such as Kuwait or European allies providing basing support—will conduct direct airstrikes or operations by April 30 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. President Trump's April 6 ultimatum for reopening shipping lanes and Pentagon preparations for potential ground actions represent key near-term catalysts, while China urges ceasefire amid uncertain coalition expansion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$816,277 交易量
2026-04-30
UAE
20%
Saudi Arabia
18%
Kuwait
7%
UK
4%
Jordan
4%
Qatar
4%
Bahrain
4%
Any E.U. Country
4%
Turkey
3%
France
2%
Oman
2%
Germany
1%
Canada
1%
$816,277 交易量
UAE
$211,090 交易量
20%
Saudi Arabia
$159,960 交易量
18%
Kuwait
$7,591 交易量
7%
UK
$128,391 交易量
4%
Jordan
$1,423 交易量
4%
Qatar
$1,314 交易量
4%
Bahrain
$9,055 交易量
4%
Any E.U. Country
$12,213 交易量
4%
Turkey
$23,724 交易量
3%
France
$153,536 交易量
2%
Oman
$1,437 交易量
2%
Germany
$83,662 交易量
1%
Canada
$22,880 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missiles, air defenses, and infrastructure in an operation aimed at neutralizing threats, sparking ongoing escalation with Iranian missile and drone barrages on Israel as recently as April 1. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE host US bases now facing retaliatory attacks, fueling trader focus on whether they or others—such as Kuwait or European allies providing basing support—will conduct direct airstrikes or operations by April 30 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. President Trump's April 6 ultimatum for reopening shipping lanes and Pentagon preparations for potential ground actions represent key near-term catalysts, while China urges ceasefire amid uncertain coalition expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
交易量
$816,277结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missiles, air defenses, and infrastructure in an operation aimed at neutralizing threats, sparking ongoing escalation with Iranian missile and drone barrages on Israel as recently as April 1. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE host US bases now facing retaliatory attacks, fueling trader focus on whether they or others—such as Kuwait or European allies providing basing support—will conduct direct airstrikes or operations by April 30 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. President Trump's April 6 ultimatum for reopening shipping lanes and Pentagon preparations for potential ground actions represent key near-term catalysts, while China urges ceasefire amid uncertain coalition expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$816,277结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missiles, air defenses, and infrastructure in an operation aimed at neutralizing threats, sparking ongoing escalation with Iranian missile and drone barrages on Israel as recently as April 1. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE host US bases now facing retaliatory attacks, fueling trader focus on whether they or others—such as Kuwait or European allies providing basing support—will conduct direct airstrikes or operations by April 30 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. President Trump's April 6 ultimatum for reopening shipping lanes and Pentagon preparations for potential ground actions represent key near-term catalysts, while China urges ceasefire amid uncertain coalition expansion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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