Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models firmly holding the top two spots—a position unchanged for the past three months amid stable benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at #3 with 6.5% odds, reflecting no confirmed major releases before resolution despite its strengths in multimodal processing and long-context handling. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags further at 2.4%, hampered by recent leaderboard stagnation. Chinese labs like Baidu and Alibaba hover below 2%, lacking competitive frontier capabilities. Traders eye potential surprise announcements, but historical release cycles suggest low disruption risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 87%
Google 7%
OpenAI 2.4%
Moonshot 1.6%
$23,316 交易量
$23,316 交易量
2026-04-30
Anthropic
87%
7%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
2%
Baidu
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meituan
1%
Z.ai
1%
xAI
1%
Mistral
1%
Amazon
1%
Anthropic 87%
Google 7%
OpenAI 2.4%
Moonshot 1.6%
$23,316 交易量
$23,316 交易量
2026-04-30
Anthropic
$3,592 交易量
87%
$3,962 交易量
7%
OpenAI
$1,778 交易量
2%
Moonshot
$1,156 交易量
2%
Baidu
$1,127 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$1,555 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$2,349 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$1,124 交易量
1%
Meituan
$1,854 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$1,344 交易量
1%
xAI
$1,264 交易量
1%
Mistral
$1,111 交易量
1%
Amazon
$1,099 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models firmly holding the top two spots—a position unchanged for the past three months amid stable benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at #3 with 6.5% odds, reflecting no confirmed major releases before resolution despite its strengths in multimodal processing and long-context handling. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags further at 2.4%, hampered by recent leaderboard stagnation. Chinese labs like Baidu and Alibaba hover below 2%, lacking competitive frontier capabilities. Traders eye potential surprise announcements, but historical release cycles suggest low disruption risk.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
交易量
$23,316结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models firmly holding the top two spots—a position unchanged for the past three months amid stable benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at #3 with 6.5% odds, reflecting no confirmed major releases before resolution despite its strengths in multimodal processing and long-context handling. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags further at 2.4%, hampered by recent leaderboard stagnation. Chinese labs like Baidu and Alibaba hover below 2%, lacking competitive frontier capabilities. Traders eye potential surprise announcements, but historical release cycles suggest low disruption risk.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$23,316结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models firmly holding the top two spots—a position unchanged for the past three months amid stable benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at #3 with 6.5% odds, reflecting no confirmed major releases before resolution despite its strengths in multimodal processing and long-context handling. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags further at 2.4%, hampered by recent leaderboard stagnation. Chinese labs like Baidu and Alibaba hover below 2%, lacking competitive frontier capabilities. Traders eye potential surprise announcements, but historical release cycles suggest low disruption risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题