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What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

Market icon

What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

$320,821 交易量

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$320,821 交易量

Polymarket

EV tax credit cuts

$12,755 交易量

Yes

End Tax on Tips

$40,108 交易量

Yes

Reduce tax on Social Security

$234,865 交易量

No

Debt Ceiling lifted/abolished

$14,254 交易量

Yes

Extension of income tax cut for High Earners

$7,193 交易量

Yes

SALT cap increase

$11,647 交易量

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes on tips earned by workers in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on tips remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax on tips. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal taxes on Social Security benefits in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on Social Security benefits remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal income tax on Social Security benefits. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly extends the current 37% top individual income tax rate set by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly includes an increase or elimination of the cap to the state and local tax deduction on any class of taxpayer earning above $10,000 in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles.

This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
交易量
$320,821
结束日期
Dec 31, 2025
市场开放时间
May 14, 2025, 12:33 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

已提议结果: Yes

无争议

最终结果: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes on tips earned by workers in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on tips remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax on tips. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal taxes on Social Security benefits in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on Social Security benefits remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal income tax on Social Security benefits. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly extends the current 37% top individual income tax rate set by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly includes an increase or elimination of the cap to the state and local tax deduction on any class of taxpayer earning above $10,000 in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"What will be in the next reconciliation bill?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 6 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"EV tax credit cuts",概率为 100%,其次是"End Tax on Tips",概率为 100%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"What will be in the next reconciliation bill?"已产生 $320.8K 的总交易量(自May 14, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"What will be in the next reconciliation bill?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 6 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"What will be in the next reconciliation bill?"的当前领先者是"EV tax credit cuts",概率为 100%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"End Tax on Tips",概率为 100%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"What will be in the next reconciliation bill?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。