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政治·主要

VA-02民主党初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

VA-02民主党初选获胜者

伊莱恩·卢里娅 82%

詹姆斯·奥西夫 9.6%

马特·斯特里克勒 4.3%

Burk Stringfellow 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

伊莱恩·卢里娅 82%

詹姆斯·奥西夫 9.6%

马特·斯特里克勒 4.3%

Burk Stringfellow 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

伊莱恩·卢里娅

$0 交易量

82%

詹姆斯·奥西夫

$1,053 交易量

10%

马特·斯特里克勒

$0 交易量

4%

Burk Stringfellow

$0 交易量

3%

帕特里克·莫索尔夫

$0 交易量

3%

尼古拉斯·斯莱斯特

$0 交易量

2%

尼拉·德瓦纳斯

$779 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised and $1 million cash on hand—name recognition from prior victories in the military-heavy district, and recent inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23, signaling party resources and front-runner status amid backlash over early endorsements. James Osyf trails at 9.6% with $410,000 raised as a national security executive, despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to unify Democrats, remaining active per filings. Others like Matt Strickler (4.3%) lag on funds and visibility in this crowded primary, with Virginia's primary shift from June to August providing more consolidation time.

Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised and $1 million cash on hand—name recognition from prior victories in the military-heavy district, and recent inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23, signaling party resources and front-runner status amid backlash over early endorsements. James Osyf trails at 9.6% with $410,000 raised as a national security executive, despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to unify Democrats, remaining active per filings. Others like Matt Strickler (4.3%) lag on funds and visibility in this crowded primary, with Virginia's primary shift from June to August providing more consolidation time.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised and $1 million cash on hand—name recognition from prior victories in the military-heavy district, and recent inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23, signaling party resources and front-runner status amid backlash over early endorsements. James Osyf trails at 9.6% with $410,000 raised as a national security executive, despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to unify Democrats, remaining active per filings. Others like Matt Strickler (4.3%) lag on funds and visibility in this crowded primary, with Virginia's primary shift from June to August providing more consolidation time.

Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised and $1 million cash on hand—name recognition from prior victories in the military-heavy district, and recent inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23, signaling party resources and front-runner status amid backlash over early endorsements. James Osyf trails at 9.6% with $410,000 raised as a national security executive, despite suspending his campaign in December 2025 to unify Democrats, remaining active per filings. Others like Matt Strickler (4.3%) lag on funds and visibility in this crowded primary, with Virginia's primary shift from June to August providing more consolidation time.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"VA-02民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"伊莱恩·卢里娅"，概率为 82%，其次是"詹姆斯·奥西夫"，概率为 10%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 82¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 82%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"VA-02民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Nov 25, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"VA-02民主党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"VA-02民主党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"伊莱恩·卢里娅"，概率为 82%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 82%。紧随其后的结果是"詹姆斯·奥西夫"，概率为 10%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"VA-02民主党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。