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Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

Trump by 0.1-0.4 99.4%

Harris by 0.5-0.9 2.0%

Harris by 1.0-1.4+ 1.9%

Trump by 2.5+ <1%

Polymarket

$448,627 交易量

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is Trump +2.5 or more percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.
交易量
$448,627
结束日期
Nov 4, 2024
创建时间
Oct 25, 2024, 11:49 AM ET
This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is Trump +2.5 or more percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

已提议结果: No

无争议

最终结果: No

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Trump by 0.1-0.4" at 100%, followed by "Trump by 2.5+" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?" has generated $448.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 25, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?" is "Trump by 0.1-0.4" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Trump by 2.5+" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?

Trump by 0.1-0.4 99.4%

Harris by 0.5-0.9 2.0%

Harris by 1.0-1.4+ 1.9%

Trump by 2.5+ <1%

Polymarket

$448,627 交易量

Trump by 2.5+

$25,883 交易量

No

Trump by 2-2.4

$25,297 交易量

No

Trump by 1.5-1.9

$21,741 交易量

No

Trump by 1-1.4

$24,215 交易量

No

Trump by 0.5-0.9

$17,151 交易量

No

Trump by 0.1-0.4

$98,547 交易量

Yes

Harris by 0-0.4

$124,696 交易量

No

Harris by 0.5-0.9

$21,703 交易量

No

Harris by 1.0-1.4+

$16,451 交易量

No

Harris by 1.5-1.9

$35,709 交易量

No

Harris by 2-2.4

$18,889 交易量

No

Harris by 2.5+

$18,345 交易量

No

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Trump by 0.1-0.4" at 100%, followed by "Trump by 2.5+" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?" has generated $448.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 25, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?" is "Trump by 0.1-0.4" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Trump by 2.5+" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.