Polymarket traders remain closely split on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities nearly tied at 32.5% for 0.5–0.9% and 32.0% for 1.5–1.9%, reflecting competing forces after Q4 2025's confirmed -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction driven by weak construction investment and unfavorable base effects. Strong semiconductor exports—up for a ninth straight month in February amid AI demand—and manufacturing PMI expansion to 51.1 signal a potential rebound, supported by consensus full-year 2026 forecasts around 1.9–2.1% from the IMF, Bank of Korea, and KDI. Key swing factors include final Q1 industrial production and employment data, with official GDP release expected late April testing whether export momentum overcomes persistent domestic headwinds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2.0–2.4% 31%
2.5%及以上 15%
1.0–1.4% 11.0%
低于0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
低于0%
15%
0.0–0.4%
3%
0.5–0.9%
32%
1.0–1.4%
11%
1.5–1.9%
33%
2.0–2.4%
25%
2.5%及以上
14%
2.0–2.4% 31%
2.5%及以上 15%
1.0–1.4% 11.0%
低于0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
低于0%
$0 交易量
15%
0.0–0.4%
$0 交易量
3%
0.5–0.9%
$0 交易量
32%
1.0–1.4%
$0 交易量
11%
1.5–1.9%
$267 交易量
33%
2.0–2.4%
$0 交易量
25%
2.5%及以上
$6,175 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders remain closely split on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities nearly tied at 32.5% for 0.5–0.9% and 32.0% for 1.5–1.9%, reflecting competing forces after Q4 2025's confirmed -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction driven by weak construction investment and unfavorable base effects. Strong semiconductor exports—up for a ninth straight month in February amid AI demand—and manufacturing PMI expansion to 51.1 signal a potential rebound, supported by consensus full-year 2026 forecasts around 1.9–2.1% from the IMF, Bank of Korea, and KDI. Key swing factors include final Q1 industrial production and employment data, with official GDP release expected late April testing whether export momentum overcomes persistent domestic headwinds.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$6,442结束日期
Apr 23, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders remain closely split on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities nearly tied at 32.5% for 0.5–0.9% and 32.0% for 1.5–1.9%, reflecting competing forces after Q4 2025's confirmed -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction driven by weak construction investment and unfavorable base effects. Strong semiconductor exports—up for a ninth straight month in February amid AI demand—and manufacturing PMI expansion to 51.1 signal a potential rebound, supported by consensus full-year 2026 forecasts around 1.9–2.1% from the IMF, Bank of Korea, and KDI. Key swing factors include final Q1 industrial production and employment data, with official GDP release expected late April testing whether export momentum overcomes persistent domestic headwinds.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
交易量
$6,442结束日期
Apr 23, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders remain closely split on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities nearly tied at 32.5% for 0.5–0.9% and 32.0% for 1.5–1.9%, reflecting competing forces after Q4 2025's confirmed -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction driven by weak construction investment and unfavorable base effects. Strong semiconductor exports—up for a ninth straight month in February amid AI demand—and manufacturing PMI expansion to 51.1 signal a potential rebound, supported by consensus full-year 2026 forecasts around 1.9–2.1% from the IMF, Bank of Korea, and KDI. Key swing factors include final Q1 industrial production and employment data, with official GDP release expected late April testing whether export momentum overcomes persistent domestic headwinds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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