Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability against an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by the company's blockbuster $122 billion funding round closed this week at an $852 billion valuation—providing up to 18 months of runway amid $6.8 billion monthly burn rates and projected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion. Despite preparations like hiring a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations and Q4 IPO rumors to preempt Anthropic, skepticism persists over profitability timelines stretching to 2030, Microsoft dependency risks, Elon Musk/xAI lawsuits, and Sam Altman's reluctance for public markets. High-cap outcomes trail due to private valuations already surpassing $800 billion, with regulatory scrutiny from figures like Sen. Warren adding uncertainty ahead of potential S-1 filings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 66%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 9.7%
1.5万亿美元+ 7.8%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 7.2%
$1,545,949 交易量
$1,545,949 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
3%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
2%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
5%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
7%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
10%
1.5万亿美元+
8%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
66%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 66%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 9.7%
1.5万亿美元+ 7.8%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 7.2%
$1,545,949 交易量
$1,545,949 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
$256,841 交易量
3%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
$138,566 交易量
2%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
$129,226 交易量
5%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
$171,716 交易量
7%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
$486,615 交易量
10%
1.5万亿美元+
$91,521 交易量
8%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
$271,463 交易量
66%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability against an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by the company's blockbuster $122 billion funding round closed this week at an $852 billion valuation—providing up to 18 months of runway amid $6.8 billion monthly burn rates and projected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion. Despite preparations like hiring a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations and Q4 IPO rumors to preempt Anthropic, skepticism persists over profitability timelines stretching to 2030, Microsoft dependency risks, Elon Musk/xAI lawsuits, and Sam Altman's reluctance for public markets. High-cap outcomes trail due to private valuations already surpassing $800 billion, with regulatory scrutiny from figures like Sen. Warren adding uncertainty ahead of potential S-1 filings.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,545,949结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability against an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by the company's blockbuster $122 billion funding round closed this week at an $852 billion valuation—providing up to 18 months of runway amid $6.8 billion monthly burn rates and projected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion. Despite preparations like hiring a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations and Q4 IPO rumors to preempt Anthropic, skepticism persists over profitability timelines stretching to 2030, Microsoft dependency risks, Elon Musk/xAI lawsuits, and Sam Altman's reluctance for public markets. High-cap outcomes trail due to private valuations already surpassing $800 billion, with regulatory scrutiny from figures like Sen. Warren adding uncertainty ahead of potential S-1 filings.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,545,949结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability against an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by the company's blockbuster $122 billion funding round closed this week at an $852 billion valuation—providing up to 18 months of runway amid $6.8 billion monthly burn rates and projected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion. Despite preparations like hiring a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations and Q4 IPO rumors to preempt Anthropic, skepticism persists over profitability timelines stretching to 2030, Microsoft dependency risks, Elon Musk/xAI lawsuits, and Sam Altman's reluctance for public markets. High-cap outcomes trail due to private valuations already surpassing $800 billion, with regulatory scrutiny from figures like Sen. Warren adding uncertainty ahead of potential S-1 filings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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