Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.9% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at or above 2.8%, driven by nowcasting models like the Cleveland Fed's projecting a robust 0.84% headline month-over-month gain, fueled by persistent shelter costs and favorable base effects from softer readings a year prior. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, but recent economist previews and rival prediction markets have converged on a 3.2%-3.4% range amid sticky core services inflation and elevated food prices at 3.1% YoY. FOMC's March 2026 projections modestly raised 2026 inflation expectations, reinforcing sentiment. Realistic challenges include a downside surprise in energy prices or core deceleration, with resolution looming on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' April 10 release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于≥2.8% 99.0%
不超过2.0% <1%
2.7% <1%
2.4% <1%
$3,109,828 交易量
$3,109,828 交易量
不超过2.0%
<1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
<1%
≥2.8%
99%
≥2.8% 99.0%
不超过2.0% <1%
2.7% <1%
2.4% <1%
$3,109,828 交易量
$3,109,828 交易量
不超过2.0%
<1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
<1%
≥2.8%
99%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市场开放时间: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.9% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at or above 2.8%, driven by nowcasting models like the Cleveland Fed's projecting a robust 0.84% headline month-over-month gain, fueled by persistent shelter costs and favorable base effects from softer readings a year prior. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, but recent economist previews and rival prediction markets have converged on a 3.2%-3.4% range amid sticky core services inflation and elevated food prices at 3.1% YoY. FOMC's March 2026 projections modestly raised 2026 inflation expectations, reinforcing sentiment. Realistic challenges include a downside surprise in energy prices or core deceleration, with resolution looming on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' April 10 release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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