Trader sentiment on Canada's 2026 annual inflation clusters tightly around 2.0-3.4% bins, with 3.0-3.4% edging out at 24.4% implied probability amid sticky core measures near 2.5% despite headline CPI dipping to 1.6% in September. Bank of Canada projections point to 2% target achievement by late 2026, but persistent shelter costs (up 5.1% YoY) and potential CAD weakness from U.S. trade risks under Trump bolster the modest upside edge. Competitive dynamics hinge on BoC's easing trajectory—next decision December 11—with 2.0-2.4% (23%) gaining if further disinflation materializes via softer energy and wage growth, while 2.5-2.9% (19.5%) trails on balanced trader capital reflecting policy uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2.5–2.9% 33%
3.0-3.4% 24.5%
2.0–2.4% 16%
低于1.0% 14%
低于1.0%
14%
1.0–1.4%
9%
1.5–1.9%
4%
2.0–2.4%
23%
2.5–2.9%
20%
3.0-3.4%
24%
3.5-3.9%
14%
4.0%及以上
12%
2.5–2.9% 33%
3.0-3.4% 24.5%
2.0–2.4% 16%
低于1.0% 14%
低于1.0%
14%
1.0–1.4%
9%
1.5–1.9%
4%
2.0–2.4%
23%
2.5–2.9%
20%
3.0-3.4%
24%
3.5-3.9%
14%
4.0%及以上
12%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
市场开放时间: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Canada's 2026 annual inflation clusters tightly around 2.0-3.4% bins, with 3.0-3.4% edging out at 24.4% implied probability amid sticky core measures near 2.5% despite headline CPI dipping to 1.6% in September. Bank of Canada projections point to 2% target achievement by late 2026, but persistent shelter costs (up 5.1% YoY) and potential CAD weakness from U.S. trade risks under Trump bolster the modest upside edge. Competitive dynamics hinge on BoC's easing trajectory—next decision December 11—with 2.0-2.4% (23%) gaining if further disinflation materializes via softer energy and wage growth, while 2.5-2.9% (19.5%) trails on balanced trader capital reflecting policy uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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