Trader consensus strongly backs SpaceX at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its staggering private valuation topping $350 billion in a late-2024 secondary tender offer and Starship's sixth test flight success in November, underscoring reusable rocket breakthroughs vital for satellite dominance via Starlink. xAI trails at 25.5%, fueled by Elon Musk's $6 billion funding round valuing it at $24 billion and the September rollout of the Colossus supercomputer—world's largest GPU cluster—bolstering its artificial intelligence positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic. Fading odds for OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.2%) stem from regulatory headwinds on AI safety and lack of confirmed IPO timelines, while others like Databricks remain sidelined by lower valuations. Watch for Starlink spin-off signals or Musk's X updates as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.3%
Anthropic 3.8%
Kraken <1%
$1,577,373 交易量
$1,577,373 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Kraken
1%
Waymo
1%
Discord
<1%
Databricks
<1%
Stripe
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 4.3%
Anthropic 3.8%
Kraken <1%
$1,577,373 交易量
$1,577,373 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$177,090 交易量
90%
OpenAI
$293,666 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$317,899 交易量
4%
Kraken
$371,513 交易量
1%
Waymo
$40,019 交易量
1%
Discord
$66,852 交易量
<1%
Databricks
$65,632 交易量
<1%
Stripe
$36,733 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$83,168 交易量
<1%
SHEIN
$51,263 交易量
<1%
Revolut
$24,137 交易量
<1%
Perplexity AI
$52,079 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus strongly backs SpaceX at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its staggering private valuation topping $350 billion in a late-2024 secondary tender offer and Starship's sixth test flight success in November, underscoring reusable rocket breakthroughs vital for satellite dominance via Starlink. xAI trails at 25.5%, fueled by Elon Musk's $6 billion funding round valuing it at $24 billion and the September rollout of the Colossus supercomputer—world's largest GPU cluster—bolstering its artificial intelligence positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic. Fading odds for OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.2%) stem from regulatory headwinds on AI safety and lack of confirmed IPO timelines, while others like Databricks remain sidelined by lower valuations. Watch for Starlink spin-off signals or Musk's X updates as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,577,373结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus strongly backs SpaceX at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its staggering private valuation topping $350 billion in a late-2024 secondary tender offer and Starship's sixth test flight success in November, underscoring reusable rocket breakthroughs vital for satellite dominance via Starlink. xAI trails at 25.5%, fueled by Elon Musk's $6 billion funding round valuing it at $24 billion and the September rollout of the Colossus supercomputer—world's largest GPU cluster—bolstering its artificial intelligence positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic. Fading odds for OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.2%) stem from regulatory headwinds on AI safety and lack of confirmed IPO timelines, while others like Databricks remain sidelined by lower valuations. Watch for Starlink spin-off signals or Musk's X updates as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,577,373结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly backs SpaceX at 88% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its staggering private valuation topping $350 billion in a late-2024 secondary tender offer and Starship's sixth test flight success in November, underscoring reusable rocket breakthroughs vital for satellite dominance via Starlink. xAI trails at 25.5%, fueled by Elon Musk's $6 billion funding round valuing it at $24 billion and the September rollout of the Colossus supercomputer—world's largest GPU cluster—bolstering its artificial intelligence positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic. Fading odds for OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (4.2%) stem from regulatory headwinds on AI safety and lack of confirmed IPO timelines, while others like Databricks remain sidelined by lower valuations. Watch for Starlink spin-off signals or Musk's X updates as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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