Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie, chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, dominates trader sentiment in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District—a solidly Republican seat with a Cook PVI of R+20—where he secured 73% of the vote in 2024. Massive fundraising advantages ($1.47 million cash on hand as of late 2025) dwarf the fragmented Democratic primary field led by William Compton, whose $8,000 cash underscores the mismatch ahead of the May 19 primaries. Absent a primary upset for Guthrie, major scandal, health issue, or national Democratic midterm wave flipping battleground dynamics, trader consensus at 91.5% implies low upset risk in the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$0 交易量
92%
民主党
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie, chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, dominates trader sentiment in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District—a solidly Republican seat with a Cook PVI of R+20—where he secured 73% of the vote in 2024. Massive fundraising advantages ($1.47 million cash on hand as of late 2025) dwarf the fragmented Democratic primary field led by William Compton, whose $8,000 cash underscores the mismatch ahead of the May 19 primaries. Absent a primary upset for Guthrie, major scandal, health issue, or national Democratic midterm wave flipping battleground dynamics, trader consensus at 91.5% implies low upset risk in the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie, chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, dominates trader sentiment in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District—a solidly Republican seat with a Cook PVI of R+20—where he secured 73% of the vote in 2024. Massive fundraising advantages ($1.47 million cash on hand as of late 2025) dwarf the fragmented Democratic primary field led by William Compton, whose $8,000 cash underscores the mismatch ahead of the May 19 primaries. Absent a primary upset for Guthrie, major scandal, health issue, or national Democratic midterm wave flipping battleground dynamics, trader consensus at 91.5% implies low upset risk in the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie, chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, dominates trader sentiment in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District—a solidly Republican seat with a Cook PVI of R+20—where he secured 73% of the vote in 2024. Massive fundraising advantages ($1.47 million cash on hand as of late 2025) dwarf the fragmented Democratic primary field led by William Compton, whose $8,000 cash underscores the mismatch ahead of the May 19 primaries. Absent a primary upset for Guthrie, major scandal, health issue, or national Democratic midterm wave flipping battleground dynamics, trader consensus at 91.5% implies low upset risk in the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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