Trader consensus assigns a commanding 90.5% implied probability to the Republican Party prevailing in Indiana's 3rd Congressional District House race, driven by the district's deep-red fundamentals (R+16 Cook PVI) where former President Trump won by over 30 points in 2020, and GOP nominee Marlin Stutzman's double-digit polling leads over Democrat Michael Myers. An October poll showed Stutzman ahead 54%-34%, reinforcing trader confidence amid strong Republican early voting turnout and superior fundraising. With no recent scandals or shifts in the past 30 days, a Democratic upset would demand a massive national blue wave, major GOP controversy, or fraud allegations triggering recount before the November 5 election night resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
91%
民主党
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a commanding 90.5% implied probability to the Republican Party prevailing in Indiana's 3rd Congressional District House race, driven by the district's deep-red fundamentals (R+16 Cook PVI) where former President Trump won by over 30 points in 2020, and GOP nominee Marlin Stutzman's double-digit polling leads over Democrat Michael Myers. An October poll showed Stutzman ahead 54%-34%, reinforcing trader confidence amid strong Republican early voting turnout and superior fundraising. With no recent scandals or shifts in the past 30 days, a Democratic upset would demand a massive national blue wave, major GOP controversy, or fraud allegations triggering recount before the November 5 election night resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a commanding 90.5% implied probability to the Republican Party prevailing in Indiana's 3rd Congressional District House race, driven by the district's deep-red fundamentals (R+16 Cook PVI) where former President Trump won by over 30 points in 2020, and GOP nominee Marlin Stutzman's double-digit polling leads over Democrat Michael Myers. An October poll showed Stutzman ahead 54%-34%, reinforcing trader confidence amid strong Republican early voting turnout and superior fundraising. With no recent scandals or shifts in the past 30 days, a Democratic upset would demand a massive national blue wave, major GOP controversy, or fraud allegations triggering recount before the November 5 election night resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a commanding 90.5% implied probability to the Republican Party prevailing in Indiana's 3rd Congressional District House race, driven by the district's deep-red fundamentals (R+16 Cook PVI) where former President Trump won by over 30 points in 2020, and GOP nominee Marlin Stutzman's double-digit polling leads over Democrat Michael Myers. An October poll showed Stutzman ahead 54%-34%, reinforcing trader confidence amid strong Republican early voting turnout and superior fundraising. With no recent scandals or shifts in the past 30 days, a Democratic upset would demand a massive national blue wave, major GOP controversy, or fraud allegations triggering recount before the November 5 election night resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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