How many states will 538 call correctly?
46 78%
48 91%
47 48%
43 9.0%
$10,713 交易量
$10,713 交易量
Nov 5, 2024
50
$5,112 交易量
No
50
$5,112 交易量
No
49
$1,846 交易量
No
49
$1,846 交易量
No
48
$975 交易量
No
48
$975 交易量
No
47
$409 交易量
No
47
$409 交易量
No
46
$1,313 交易量
Yes
46
$1,313 交易量
Yes
45
$121 交易量
No
45
$121 交易量
No
44
$123 交易量
No
44
$123 交易量
No
43
$241 交易量
No
43
$241 交易量
No
<43
$572 交易量
No
<43
$572 交易量
No
规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in all 50 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state.
If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly.
This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved.
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.
创建于： Oct 28, 2024, 12:13 PM ET
交易量
$10,713结束日期
Nov 5, 2024创建于
Oct 28, 2024, 12:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
How many states will 538 call correctly?
46 78%
48 91%
47 48%
43 9.0%
$10,713 交易量
$10,713 交易量
Nov 5, 2024
50
$5,112 交易量
No
49
$1,846 交易量
No
48
$975 交易量
No
47
$409 交易量
No
46
$1,313 交易量
Yes
45
$121 交易量
No
44
$123 交易量
No
43
$241 交易量
No
<43
$572 交易量
No
关于
交易量
$10,713结束日期
Nov 5, 2024创建于
Oct 28, 2024, 12:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...注意外部链接。
注意外部链接。
注意外部链接。
注意外部链接。