xAI's Grok 5 remains unreleased as of early April 2026, driving trader caution after Elon Musk's late-2025 promises of a Q1 launch with 6 trillion parameters and superior real-time video understanding plus reasoning. Training continues on the massive Colossus 2 supercluster—now at 1GW power draw—bolstering xAI's compute edge amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5 pursuits and Google's Gemini advances. Recent "Grok hits new high" signals from Musk likely pertain to Grok 4.20 iterations topping benchmarks like LMSYS, sustaining momentum without confirming Grok 5 rollout. Traders eye Q2 2026 betas or X platform integrations as key catalysts, reflecting prediction markets' wisdom in discounting optimistic timelines given historical slips.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$130,366 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
14%
$130,366 交易量
2026年6月30日
$21,149 交易量
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5 remains unreleased as of early April 2026, driving trader caution after Elon Musk's late-2025 promises of a Q1 launch with 6 trillion parameters and superior real-time video understanding plus reasoning. Training continues on the massive Colossus 2 supercluster—now at 1GW power draw—bolstering xAI's compute edge amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5 pursuits and Google's Gemini advances. Recent "Grok hits new high" signals from Musk likely pertain to Grok 4.20 iterations topping benchmarks like LMSYS, sustaining momentum without confirming Grok 5 rollout. Traders eye Q2 2026 betas or X platform integrations as key catalysts, reflecting prediction markets' wisdom in discounting optimistic timelines given historical slips.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2025, 4:34 PM ET
交易量
$130,366结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2025, 4:34 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5 remains unreleased as of early April 2026, driving trader caution after Elon Musk's late-2025 promises of a Q1 launch with 6 trillion parameters and superior real-time video understanding plus reasoning. Training continues on the massive Colossus 2 supercluster—now at 1GW power draw—bolstering xAI's compute edge amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5 pursuits and Google's Gemini advances. Recent "Grok hits new high" signals from Musk likely pertain to Grok 4.20 iterations topping benchmarks like LMSYS, sustaining momentum without confirming Grok 5 rollout. Traders eye Q2 2026 betas or X platform integrations as key catalysts, reflecting prediction markets' wisdom in discounting optimistic timelines given historical slips.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$130,366结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2025, 4:34 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
xAI's Grok 5 remains unreleased as of early April 2026, driving trader caution after Elon Musk's late-2025 promises of a Q1 launch with 6 trillion parameters and superior real-time video understanding plus reasoning. Training continues on the massive Colossus 2 supercluster—now at 1GW power draw—bolstering xAI's compute edge amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5 pursuits and Google's Gemini advances. Recent "Grok hits new high" signals from Musk likely pertain to Grok 4.20 iterations topping benchmarks like LMSYS, sustaining momentum without confirming Grok 5 rollout. Traders eye Q2 2026 betas or X platform integrations as key catalysts, reflecting prediction markets' wisdom in discounting optimistic timelines given historical slips.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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