Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 43.5% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, aligning closely with ECB staff's March projection of 0.9%—trimmed 0.3 percentage points from December 2025 amid Middle East war-induced energy price surges to $90/barrel oil, curbing consumption and investment while lifting headline inflation to 2.6%. The 28% odds for 0-1.0% reflect downside risks from persistent uncertainty and subdued Q4 2025 GDP expansion of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, offset partially by fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure. IMF's April outlook at 1.2% supports the clustering, with Q1 2026 flash GDP due April 29 as the next catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1.0-2.0% 45%
4.0-5.0% 16.7%
7.0%及以上 14.7%
0-1.0% 13.1%
最新
最新
2027-01-31
低于0%
10%
0-1.0%
28%
1.0-2.0%
43%
2.0-3.0%
16%
3.0-4.0%
11%
4.0-5.0%
15%
5.0-6.0%
6%
6.0-7.0%
3%
7.0%及以上
15%
1.0-2.0% 45%
4.0-5.0% 16.7%
7.0%及以上 14.7%
0-1.0% 13.1%
最新
最新
2027-01-31
低于0%
$593 交易量
10%
0-1.0%
$469 交易量
28%
1.0-2.0%
$1,267 交易量
43%
2.0-3.0%
$554 交易量
16%
3.0-4.0%
$469 交易量
11%
4.0-5.0%
$1,378 交易量
15%
5.0-6.0%
$491 交易量
6%
6.0-7.0%
$542 交易量
3%
7.0%及以上
$334 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 43.5% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, aligning closely with ECB staff's March projection of 0.9%—trimmed 0.3 percentage points from December 2025 amid Middle East war-induced energy price surges to $90/barrel oil, curbing consumption and investment while lifting headline inflation to 2.6%. The 28% odds for 0-1.0% reflect downside risks from persistent uncertainty and subdued Q4 2025 GDP expansion of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, offset partially by fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure. IMF's April outlook at 1.2% supports the clustering, with Q1 2026 flash GDP due April 29 as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$6,098结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 43.5% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, aligning closely with ECB staff's March projection of 0.9%—trimmed 0.3 percentage points from December 2025 amid Middle East war-induced energy price surges to $90/barrel oil, curbing consumption and investment while lifting headline inflation to 2.6%. The 28% odds for 0-1.0% reflect downside risks from persistent uncertainty and subdued Q4 2025 GDP expansion of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, offset partially by fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure. IMF's April outlook at 1.2% supports the clustering, with Q1 2026 flash GDP due April 29 as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$6,098结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 43.5% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, aligning closely with ECB staff's March projection of 0.9%—trimmed 0.3 percentage points from December 2025 amid Middle East war-induced energy price surges to $90/barrel oil, curbing consumption and investment while lifting headline inflation to 2.6%. The 28% odds for 0-1.0% reflect downside risks from persistent uncertainty and subdued Q4 2025 GDP expansion of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, offset partially by fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure. IMF's April outlook at 1.2% supports the clustering, with Q1 2026 flash GDP due April 29 as the next catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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