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2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

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2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

4月 10

5月 10

4月 10

5月 10

3rd hottest 42%

4th or lower 25%

2nd hottest 22%

1st hottest 18%

Polymarket
最新

3rd hottest 42%

4th or lower 25%

2nd hottest 22%

1st hottest 18%

Polymarket
最新

1st hottest

$907 交易量

18%

2nd hottest

$219 交易量

34%

3rd hottest

$230 交易量

38%

4th or lower

$672 交易量

23%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward April 3rd claiming the hottest day on record for that date at 37% implied probability—edging out April 2nd at 29%—driven by short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF projecting peak global surface air temperature anomalies mid-week, amid atmospheric patterns favoring enhanced warming over land areas. NOAA's March 12 ENSO diagnostic highlights a 60% chance of La Niña dissipating into neutral conditions by April, easing Pacific cooling effects noted in cooler 2025 trends, while WMO's March 23 seasonal update signals above-normal land temperatures for April-June 2026. With records set by prior hot Aprils (2024 warmest, 2025 second), daily model runs introduce uncertainty, as cloud cover or jet stream shifts could tip outcomes; expect refined guidance from upcoming ERA5 preliminary data and GFS updates resolving the market.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$2,028
结束日期
2026-05-10
市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward April 3rd claiming the hottest day on record for that date at 37% implied probability—edging out April 2nd at 29%—driven by short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF projecting peak global surface air temperature anomalies mid-week, amid atmospheric patterns favoring enhanced warming over land areas. NOAA's March 12 ENSO diagnostic highlights a 60% chance of La Niña dissipating into neutral conditions by April, easing Pacific cooling effects noted in cooler 2025 trends, while WMO's March 23 seasonal update signals above-normal land temperatures for April-June 2026. With records set by prior hot Aprils (2024 warmest, 2025 second), daily model runs introduce uncertainty, as cloud cover or jet stream shifts could tip outcomes; expect refined guidance from upcoming ERA5 preliminary data and GFS updates resolving the market.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$2,028
结束日期
2026-05-10
市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"3rd hottest"，概率为 38%，其次是"2nd hottest"，概率为 34%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 38¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 38%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Mar 24, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"的当前领先者是"3rd hottest"，概率为 38%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 38%。紧随其后的结果是"2nd hottest"，概率为 34%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。