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政治·Elon Musk

Elon Musk會在2027年之前宣布參選總統嗎？

Market icon
政治·Elon Musk

Elon Musk會在2027年之前宣布參選總統嗎？

12月 31

12月 31

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$13,056 交易量

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$13,056 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.3% on Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, driven primarily by the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, born in South Africa and naturalized in 2002, does not qualify without an improbable amendment. Musk himself stated in 2024 he has no desire to run, preferring to focus on rockets and cars, a stance unchanged amid his recent political moves. In July 2025, he launched the America Party targeting 2026 midterms after a Trump feud, but reports indicate he's pausing it to back figures like JD Vance instead. No announcements have emerged, with Musk prioritizing Department of Government Efficiency role and Republican funding; only extraordinary legal reinterpretation or scandal could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$13,056
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.3% on Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, driven primarily by the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, born in South Africa and naturalized in 2002, does not qualify without an improbable amendment. Musk himself stated in 2024 he has no desire to run, preferring to focus on rockets and cars, a stance unchanged amid his recent political moves. In July 2025, he launched the America Party targeting 2026 midterms after a Trump feud, but reports indicate he's pausing it to back figures like JD Vance instead. No announcements have emerged, with Musk prioritizing Department of Government Efficiency role and Republican funding; only extraordinary legal reinterpretation or scandal could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$13,056
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Elon Musk會在2027年之前宣布參選總統嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "馬斯克會在2027年前宣布參選總統嗎？" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Elon Musk會在2027年之前宣布參選總統嗎？" has generated $13.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Elon Musk會在2027年之前宣布參選總統嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Elon Musk會在2027年之前宣布參選總統嗎？" is "馬斯克會在2027年前宣布參選總統嗎？" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Elon Musk會在2027年之前宣布參選總統嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.