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Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed?

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Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$418,030 交易量

>99% chance
Polymarket

$418,030 交易量

On November 21, 2024, Matt Gaetz announced that he would be withdrawing himself from consideration for the position of Attorney General after having previously been announced as Trump’s nominee. This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least three individuals (including Gaetz) picked by Donald Trump for cabinet-level positions requiring Senate confirmation are withdrawn (failing a Senate confirmation vote will not alone qualify). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market. Any individual who Trump has announced an intention to nominate will be considered. Similarly, announcements from the nominee, Trump or one of his representatives that the nominee will be withdrawn will qualify for this market. A candidate who fails a senate confirmation vote will not be considered to have been withdrawn until their withdrawal has been announced or another candidate has been named instead. For example, if Hegseth fails a confirmation vote, but is later appointed through a recess appointment, this would not count as Hegseth withdrawing. However, if Hegseth were to fail a confirmation vote and then was withdrawn and replaced with another nominee, this would qualify as Hegseth withdrawing. If a candidate has not officially assumed the role they were nominated for by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, they will be considered to have been withdrawn. This market will resolve to "No" as soon as all relevant positions are filled without meeting the conditions for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

On November 21, 2024, Matt Gaetz announced that he would be withdrawing himself from consideration for the position of Attorney General after having previously been announced as Trump’s nominee.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least three individuals (including Gaetz) picked by Donald Trump for cabinet-level positions requiring Senate confirmation are withdrawn (failing a Senate confirmation vote will not alone qualify). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market.

Any individual who Trump has announced an intention to nominate will be considered. Similarly, announcements from the nominee, Trump or one of his representatives that the nominee will be withdrawn will qualify for this market.

A candidate who fails a senate confirmation vote will not be considered to have been withdrawn until their withdrawal has been announced or another candidate has been named instead. For example, if Hegseth fails a confirmation vote, but is later appointed through a recess appointment, this would not count as Hegseth withdrawing. However, if Hegseth were to fail a confirmation vote and then was withdrawn and replaced with another nominee, this would qualify as Hegseth withdrawing.

If a candidate has not officially assumed the role they were nominated for by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, they will be considered to have been withdrawn.

This market will resolve to "No" as soon as all relevant positions are filled without meeting the conditions for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$418,030
結束日期
Jun 30, 2025
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2024, 6:03 PM ET
On November 21, 2024, Matt Gaetz announced that he would be withdrawing himself from consideration for the position of Attorney General after having previously been announced as Trump’s nominee. This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least three individuals (including Gaetz) picked by Donald Trump for cabinet-level positions requiring Senate confirmation are withdrawn (failing a Senate confirmation vote will not alone qualify). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market. Any individual who Trump has announced an intention to nominate will be considered. Similarly, announcements from the nominee, Trump or one of his representatives that the nominee will be withdrawn will qualify for this market. A candidate who fails a senate confirmation vote will not be considered to have been withdrawn until their withdrawal has been announced or another candidate has been named instead. For example, if Hegseth fails a confirmation vote, but is later appointed through a recess appointment, this would not count as Hegseth withdrawing. However, if Hegseth were to fail a confirmation vote and then was withdrawn and replaced with another nominee, this would qualify as Hegseth withdrawing. If a candidate has not officially assumed the role they were nominated for by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, they will be considered to have been withdrawn. This market will resolve to "No" as soon as all relevant positions are filled without meeting the conditions for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: Yes

有爭議

已提議結果: Yes

無爭議

最終結果: Yes

On November 21, 2024, Matt Gaetz announced that he would be withdrawing himself from consideration for the position of Attorney General after having previously been announced as Trump’s nominee. This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least three individuals (including Gaetz) picked by Donald Trump for cabinet-level positions requiring Senate confirmation are withdrawn (failing a Senate confirmation vote will not alone qualify). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market. Any individual who Trump has announced an intention to nominate will be considered. Similarly, announcements from the nominee, Trump or one of his representatives that the nominee will be withdrawn will qualify for this market. A candidate who fails a senate confirmation vote will not be considered to have been withdrawn until their withdrawal has been announced or another candidate has been named instead. For example, if Hegseth fails a confirmation vote, but is later appointed through a recess appointment, this would not count as Hegseth withdrawing. However, if Hegseth were to fail a confirmation vote and then was withdrawn and replaced with another nominee, this would qualify as Hegseth withdrawing. If a candidate has not officially assumed the role they were nominated for by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, they will be considered to have been withdrawn. This market will resolve to "No" as soon as all relevant positions are filled without meeting the conditions for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

On November 21, 2024, Matt Gaetz announced that he would be withdrawing himself from consideration for the position of Attorney General after having previously been announced as Trump’s nominee.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least three individuals (including Gaetz) picked by Donald Trump for cabinet-level positions requiring Senate confirmation are withdrawn (failing a Senate confirmation vote will not alone qualify). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market.

Any individual who Trump has announced an intention to nominate will be considered. Similarly, announcements from the nominee, Trump or one of his representatives that the nominee will be withdrawn will qualify for this market.

A candidate who fails a senate confirmation vote will not be considered to have been withdrawn until their withdrawal has been announced or another candidate has been named instead. For example, if Hegseth fails a confirmation vote, but is later appointed through a recess appointment, this would not count as Hegseth withdrawing. However, if Hegseth were to fail a confirmation vote and then was withdrawn and replaced with another nominee, this would qualify as Hegseth withdrawing.

If a candidate has not officially assumed the role they were nominated for by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, they will be considered to have been withdrawn.

This market will resolve to "No" as soon as all relevant positions are filled without meeting the conditions for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$418,030
結束日期
Jun 30, 2025
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2024, 6:03 PM ET
On November 21, 2024, Matt Gaetz announced that he would be withdrawing himself from consideration for the position of Attorney General after having previously been announced as Trump’s nominee. This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least three individuals (including Gaetz) picked by Donald Trump for cabinet-level positions requiring Senate confirmation are withdrawn (failing a Senate confirmation vote will not alone qualify). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market. Any individual who Trump has announced an intention to nominate will be considered. Similarly, announcements from the nominee, Trump or one of his representatives that the nominee will be withdrawn will qualify for this market. A candidate who fails a senate confirmation vote will not be considered to have been withdrawn until their withdrawal has been announced or another candidate has been named instead. For example, if Hegseth fails a confirmation vote, but is later appointed through a recess appointment, this would not count as Hegseth withdrawing. However, if Hegseth were to fail a confirmation vote and then was withdrawn and replaced with another nominee, this would qualify as Hegseth withdrawing. If a candidate has not officially assumed the role they were nominated for by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, they will be considered to have been withdrawn. This market will resolve to "No" as soon as all relevant positions are filled without meeting the conditions for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: Yes

有爭議

已提議結果: Yes

無爭議

最終結果: Yes

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed?" has generated $418K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.