Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any legislation passed by Congress and signed by President Trump—or otherwise enacted—to activate Selective Service induction or establish conscription by December 31, reflecting standard resolution criteria. Recent March 2026 developments, including the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic registration provision for males 18-25 (effective December) and Army enlistment expansions to age 42, enhance readiness without authorizing drafts, amid limited US-Iran conflict now signaling de-escalation per White House statements. No bills have advanced despite speculation, prioritizing volunteer force incentives over politically fraught conscription historically unused since 1973. Late-year escalations could shift odds, but current positioning underscores low legislative momentum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$85,893 交易量
$85,893 交易量
2026-12-31
$85,893 交易量
$85,893 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any legislation passed by Congress and signed by President Trump—or otherwise enacted—to activate Selective Service induction or establish conscription by December 31, reflecting standard resolution criteria. Recent March 2026 developments, including the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic registration provision for males 18-25 (effective December) and Army enlistment expansions to age 42, enhance readiness without authorizing drafts, amid limited US-Iran conflict now signaling de-escalation per White House statements. No bills have advanced despite speculation, prioritizing volunteer force incentives over politically fraught conscription historically unused since 1973. Late-year escalations could shift odds, but current positioning underscores low legislative momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$85,893結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any legislation passed by Congress and signed by President Trump—or otherwise enacted—to activate Selective Service induction or establish conscription by December 31, reflecting standard resolution criteria. Recent March 2026 developments, including the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic registration provision for males 18-25 (effective December) and Army enlistment expansions to age 42, enhance readiness without authorizing drafts, amid limited US-Iran conflict now signaling de-escalation per White House statements. No bills have advanced despite speculation, prioritizing volunteer force incentives over politically fraught conscription historically unused since 1973. Late-year escalations could shift odds, but current positioning underscores low legislative momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$85,893結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any legislation passed by Congress and signed by President Trump—or otherwise enacted—to activate Selective Service induction or establish conscription by December 31, reflecting standard resolution criteria. Recent March 2026 developments, including the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic registration provision for males 18-25 (effective December) and Army enlistment expansions to age 42, enhance readiness without authorizing drafts, amid limited US-Iran conflict now signaling de-escalation per White House statements. No bills have advanced despite speculation, prioritizing volunteer force incentives over politically fraught conscription historically unused since 1973. Late-year escalations could shift odds, but current positioning underscores low legislative momentum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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