Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis—with nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages persisting since early 2026 due to U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan oil imports—the communist regime under President Miguel Díaz-Canel has maintained control through repression of protests and concessions like the release of over 2,000 political prisoners this week. While demonstrations have grown amid economic collapse, the absence of organized opposition and historical institutional resilience underpin trader consensus pricing a 73% implied probability against regime collapse by December 31. No major leadership changes or mass uprisings have materialized, though intensified U.S. pressure and potential further unrest could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$131,887 交易量
$131,887 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$131,887 交易量
$131,887 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis—with nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages persisting since early 2026 due to U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan oil imports—the communist regime under President Miguel Díaz-Canel has maintained control through repression of protests and concessions like the release of over 2,000 political prisoners this week. While demonstrations have grown amid economic collapse, the absence of organized opposition and historical institutional resilience underpin trader consensus pricing a 73% implied probability against regime collapse by December 31. No major leadership changes or mass uprisings have materialized, though intensified U.S. pressure and potential further unrest could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
交易量
$131,887結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis—with nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages persisting since early 2026 due to U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan oil imports—the communist regime under President Miguel Díaz-Canel has maintained control through repression of protests and concessions like the release of over 2,000 political prisoners this week. While demonstrations have grown amid economic collapse, the absence of organized opposition and historical institutional resilience underpin trader consensus pricing a 73% implied probability against regime collapse by December 31. No major leadership changes or mass uprisings have materialized, though intensified U.S. pressure and potential further unrest could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$131,887結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid Cuba's deepening energy crisis—with nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages persisting since early 2026 due to U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan oil imports—the communist regime under President Miguel Díaz-Canel has maintained control through repression of protests and concessions like the release of over 2,000 political prisoners this week. While demonstrations have grown amid economic collapse, the absence of organized opposition and historical institutional resilience underpin trader consensus pricing a 73% implied probability against regime collapse by December 31. No major leadership changes or mass uprisings have materialized, though intensified U.S. pressure and potential further unrest could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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