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選舉·特朗普

誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？

Market icon
選舉·特朗普

誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？

史考特·維納 69%

Saikat Chakrabarti 24.5%

康妮·陳 7.3%

熊靖超 <1%

Polymarket

$330,230 交易量

史考特·維納 69%

Saikat Chakrabarti 24.5%

康妮·陳 7.3%

熊靖超 <1%

Polymarket

$330,230 交易量

史考特·維納

$33,296 交易量

69%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$17,834 交易量

25%

康妮·陳

$200,465 交易量

7%

熊靖超

$39,075 交易量

1%

David Ganezer

$8,605 交易量

1%

達倫·赫爾頓

$17,256 交易量

<1%

Cole Bettles

$13,697 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to finish first in California's CA-11 top-two primary on June 2, driven by his commanding fundraising advantage, California Democratic Party endorsement in February, and recent mobilization of San Francisco establishment donors via super PACs targeting rival Saikat Chakrabarti. Chakrabarti, a self-funded progressive and former AOC chief of staff, holds 24.6% amid attacks portraying him as an outsider despite his local tech roots, while Supervisor Connie Chan trails at 7.4% with incumbency in city office but limited resources. Recent Politico reporting on power broker opposition to Chakrabarti has solidified Wiener's edge in this crowded Democratic field succeeding Nancy Pelosi, with a key candidate forum set for March 31 potentially shifting dynamics.

State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to finish first in California's CA-11 top-two primary on June 2, driven by his commanding fundraising advantage, California Democratic Party endorsement in February, and recent mobilization of San Francisco establishment donors via super PACs targeting rival Saikat Chakrabarti. Chakrabarti, a self-funded progressive and former AOC chief of staff, holds 24.6% amid attacks portraying him as an outsider despite his local tech roots, while Supervisor Connie Chan trails at 7.4% with incumbency in city office but limited resources. Recent Politico reporting on power broker opposition to Chakrabarti has solidified Wiener's edge in this crowded Democratic field succeeding Nancy Pelosi, with a key candidate forum set for March 31 potentially shifting dynamics.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to finish first in California's CA-11 top-two primary on June 2, driven by his commanding fundraising advantage, California Democratic Party endorsement in February, and recent mobilization of San Francisco establishment donors via super PACs targeting rival Saikat Chakrabarti. Chakrabarti, a self-funded progressive and former AOC chief of staff, holds 24.6% amid attacks portraying him as an outsider despite his local tech roots, while Supervisor Connie Chan trails at 7.4% with incumbency in city office but limited resources. Recent Politico reporting on power broker opposition to Chakrabarti has solidified Wiener's edge in this crowded Democratic field succeeding Nancy Pelosi, with a key candidate forum set for March 31 potentially shifting dynamics.

State Sen. Scott Wiener leads trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to finish first in California's CA-11 top-two primary on June 2, driven by his commanding fundraising advantage, California Democratic Party endorsement in February, and recent mobilization of San Francisco establishment donors via super PACs targeting rival Saikat Chakrabarti. Chakrabarti, a self-funded progressive and former AOC chief of staff, holds 24.6% amid attacks portraying him as an outsider despite his local tech roots, while Supervisor Connie Chan trails at 7.4% with incumbency in city office but limited resources. Recent Politico reporting on power broker opposition to Chakrabarti has solidified Wiener's edge in this crowded Democratic field succeeding Nancy Pelosi, with a key candidate forum set for March 31 potentially shifting dynamics.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "史考特·維納" at 69%, followed by "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？" has generated $330.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？" is "史考特·維納" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.