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選舉·特朗普

紐約-12民主黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
選舉·特朗普

紐約-12民主黨初選獲勝者

Micah Lasher 40%

Alex Bores 30%

傑克·施洛斯伯格 17%

喬治·康威 4.0%

Polymarket

$104,203 交易量

Micah Lasher 40%

Alex Bores 30%

傑克·施洛斯伯格 17%

喬治·康威 4.0%

Polymarket

$104,203 交易量

Micah Lasher

$4,468 交易量

37%

Alex Bores

$2,750 交易量

30%

傑克·施洛斯伯格

$5,183 交易量

17%

喬治·康威

$1,409 交易量

4%

Erik Bottcher

$1,823 交易量

7%

Liz Krueger

$36,794 交易量

1%

Julie Menin

$22,807 交易量

1%

Cameron Kasky

$2,298 交易量

1%

Lina Khan

$1,801 交易量

1%

蓋爾·布魯爾

$1,244 交易量

1%

安德魯·庫莫

$1,559 交易量

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 交易量

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,473 交易量

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$1,755 交易量

<1%

Brad Lander

$1,216 交易量

<1%

切爾西·克林頓

$6,916 交易量

<1%

利亞姆·埃爾金德

$1,454 交易量

<1%

Scott Stringer

$1,964 交易量

<1%

辛西婭·尼克森

$1,626 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus slightly favors Assemblymember Micah Lasher at 38% implied probability for the NY-12 Democratic primary, propelled by his endorsement from retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler and heavy fundraising from Michael Bloomberg allies, positioning him as the establishment frontrunner in this Upper East and West Side Manhattan district. State Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 29.5% on momentum from mid-March Public First polling where he led narrowly at 20% among likely voters, while Jack Schlossberg's 17.5% draws from Kennedy name recognition despite early surveys showing leaders stuck in the high teens amid 30%+ undecideds. The fragmented, 18-candidate field sustains tightness; upcoming debates, additional polls, key endorsements from labor or progressive groups, and Q1 FEC reports could consolidate support before the June 23 primary.

Trader consensus slightly favors Assemblymember Micah Lasher at 38% implied probability for the NY-12 Democratic primary, propelled by his endorsement from retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler and heavy fundraising from Michael Bloomberg allies, positioning him as the establishment frontrunner in this Upper East and West Side Manhattan district. State Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 29.5% on momentum from mid-March Public First polling where he led narrowly at 20% among likely voters, while Jack Schlossberg's 17.5% draws from Kennedy name recognition despite early surveys showing leaders stuck in the high teens amid 30%+ undecideds. The fragmented, 18-candidate field sustains tightness; upcoming debates, additional polls, key endorsements from labor or progressive groups, and Q1 FEC reports could consolidate support before the June 23 primary.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus slightly favors Assemblymember Micah Lasher at 38% implied probability for the NY-12 Democratic primary, propelled by his endorsement from retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler and heavy fundraising from Michael Bloomberg allies, positioning him as the establishment frontrunner in this Upper East and West Side Manhattan district. State Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 29.5% on momentum from mid-March Public First polling where he led narrowly at 20% among likely voters, while Jack Schlossberg's 17.5% draws from Kennedy name recognition despite early surveys showing leaders stuck in the high teens amid 30%+ undecideds. The fragmented, 18-candidate field sustains tightness; upcoming debates, additional polls, key endorsements from labor or progressive groups, and Q1 FEC reports could consolidate support before the June 23 primary.

Trader consensus slightly favors Assemblymember Micah Lasher at 38% implied probability for the NY-12 Democratic primary, propelled by his endorsement from retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler and heavy fundraising from Michael Bloomberg allies, positioning him as the establishment frontrunner in this Upper East and West Side Manhattan district. State Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 29.5% on momentum from mid-March Public First polling where he led narrowly at 20% among likely voters, while Jack Schlossberg's 17.5% draws from Kennedy name recognition despite early surveys showing leaders stuck in the high teens amid 30%+ undecideds. The fragmented, 18-candidate field sustains tightness; upcoming debates, additional polls, key endorsements from labor or progressive groups, and Q1 FEC reports could consolidate support before the June 23 primary.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"紐約-12民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Micah Lasher" at 37%, followed by "Alex Bores" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "紐約-12民主黨初選獲勝者" has generated $104.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "紐約-12民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "紐約-12民主黨初選獲勝者" is "Micah Lasher" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Bores" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "紐約-12民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.