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政治·特朗普

誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？

Kevin Warsh 96.4%

Judy Shelton 1.4%

米歇爾·鮑曼 <1%

史蒂芬·米蘭 <1%

Polymarket

$20,335,588 交易量

Kevin Warsh 96.4%

Judy Shelton 1.4%

米歇爾·鮑曼 <1%

史蒂芬·米蘭 <1%

Polymarket

$20,335,588 交易量

Kevin Warsh

$2,796,860 交易量

96%

Judy Shelton

$9,250,410 交易量

1%

Kevin Hassett

$829,497 交易量

<1%

克里斯多福·沃勒

$755,848 交易量

<1%

傑羅姆·鮑威爾

$969,806 交易量

<1%

史蒂芬·米蘭

$788,829 交易量

<1%

Scott Bessent

$2,149,818 交易量

<1%

Rick Reider

$672,645 交易量

<1%

米歇爾·鮑曼

$2,122,946 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin Warsh's 96.5% implied probability as the next confirmed Fed Chair stems from his status as President Trump's official nominee, formally transmitted to the Senate on March 4 ahead of Jerome Powell's May 15 term expiration, coupled with the Senate Banking Committee's plan for a confirmation hearing the week of April 13. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, enjoys broad Republican support in the GOP-controlled Senate, reflecting trader consensus on his hawkish credentials and market experience driving the commanding odds. Challenges could arise from Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold over a DOJ probe into Powell's Fed building renovations—now facing appeal after a judge's April 3 ruling—or Democratic opposition led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, though historical patterns favor nominees without major scandals.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$20,335,588
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin Warsh's 96.5% implied probability as the next confirmed Fed Chair stems from his status as President Trump's official nominee, formally transmitted to the Senate on March 4 ahead of Jerome Powell's May 15 term expiration, coupled with the Senate Banking Committee's plan for a confirmation hearing the week of April 13. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, enjoys broad Republican support in the GOP-controlled Senate, reflecting trader consensus on his hawkish credentials and market experience driving the commanding odds. Challenges could arise from Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold over a DOJ probe into Powell's Fed building renovations—now facing appeal after a judge's April 3 ruling—or Democratic opposition led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, though historical patterns favor nominees without major scandals.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$20,335,588
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Warsh" at 96%, followed by "Judy Shelton" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？" has generated $20.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？" is "Kevin Warsh" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Judy Shelton" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "誰將被確認為聯儲局主席？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.