Trader sentiment on countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 remains cautious, with implied probabilities under 20% for leading contenders like Saudi Arabia and Brazil, reflecting no official accessions since the board's inception last year. Primary drivers include stalled multilateral talks amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, where key diplomats have prioritized bilateral ceasefires over new memberships. Recent UN General Assembly discussions highlighted potential interest from neutral states like Indonesia, but primary sources confirm no commitments. Upcoming G20 foreign ministers' meetings in February could catalyze announcements, though historical base rates for such boards show frequent delays, underscoring election-like unpredictability in diplomatic outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$1,958,557 交易量
俄羅斯
2%
印度
2%
巴勒斯坦
2%
英國
2%
義大利
2%
西班牙
1%
巴西
1%
比利時
1%
瑞典
1%
德國
1%
挪威
1%
法國
1%
芬蘭
1%
丹麥
1%
烏克蘭
1%
荷蘭
1%
中國
<1%
瑞士
<1%
$1,958,557 交易量
俄羅斯
2%
印度
2%
巴勒斯坦
2%
英國
2%
義大利
2%
西班牙
1%
巴西
1%
比利時
1%
瑞典
1%
德國
1%
挪威
1%
法國
1%
芬蘭
1%
丹麥
1%
烏克蘭
1%
荷蘭
1%
中國
<1%
瑞士
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 remains cautious, with implied probabilities under 20% for leading contenders like Saudi Arabia and Brazil, reflecting no official accessions since the board's inception last year. Primary drivers include stalled multilateral talks amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, where key diplomats have prioritized bilateral ceasefires over new memberships. Recent UN General Assembly discussions highlighted potential interest from neutral states like Indonesia, but primary sources confirm no commitments. Upcoming G20 foreign ministers' meetings in February could catalyze announcements, though historical base rates for such boards show frequent delays, underscoring election-like unpredictability in diplomatic outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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