Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities marked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and power infrastructure, the Trump administration circulated a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators like Pakistan last week, demanding nuclear rollbacks, missile freezes, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejected it outright, issuing a counterproposal for reparations and full cessation of attacks, while accusing Washington of plotting a ground invasion despite diplomatic overtures. President Trump postponed strikes on energy assets until April 6, signaling flexibility, as Pakistan prepares to host direct talks. Iran-backed Houthis escalated with missile strikes on Israel yesterday, complicating de-escalation amid trader focus on near-term diplomatic breakthroughs or further military exchanges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$61,644,441 交易量
3月31日
2%
4月7日
8%
4月15日
17%
4月30日
32%
5月31日
47%
6月30日
58%
12月31日
75%
$61,644,441 交易量
3月31日
$38,912,500 交易量
2%
4月7日
$1,412,711 交易量
8%
4月15日
$5,999,619 交易量
17%
4月30日
$6,695,991 交易量
32%
5月31日
$2,269,107 交易量
47%
6月30日
$2,348,327 交易量
58%
12月31日
$513,313 交易量
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities marked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and power infrastructure, the Trump administration circulated a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators like Pakistan last week, demanding nuclear rollbacks, missile freezes, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejected it outright, issuing a counterproposal for reparations and full cessation of attacks, while accusing Washington of plotting a ground invasion despite diplomatic overtures. President Trump postponed strikes on energy assets until April 6, signaling flexibility, as Pakistan prepares to host direct talks. Iran-backed Houthis escalated with missile strikes on Israel yesterday, complicating de-escalation amid trader focus on near-term diplomatic breakthroughs or further military exchanges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
交易量
$61,644,441市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities marked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and power infrastructure, the Trump administration circulated a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators like Pakistan last week, demanding nuclear rollbacks, missile freezes, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejected it outright, issuing a counterproposal for reparations and full cessation of attacks, while accusing Washington of plotting a ground invasion despite diplomatic overtures. President Trump postponed strikes on energy assets until April 6, signaling flexibility, as Pakistan prepares to host direct talks. Iran-backed Houthis escalated with missile strikes on Israel yesterday, complicating de-escalation amid trader focus on near-term diplomatic breakthroughs or further military exchanges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$61,644,441市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities marked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and power infrastructure, the Trump administration circulated a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators like Pakistan last week, demanding nuclear rollbacks, missile freezes, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejected it outright, issuing a counterproposal for reparations and full cessation of attacks, while accusing Washington of plotting a ground invasion despite diplomatic overtures. President Trump postponed strikes on energy assets until April 6, signaling flexibility, as Pakistan prepares to host direct talks. Iran-backed Houthis escalated with missile strikes on Israel yesterday, complicating de-escalation amid trader focus on near-term diplomatic breakthroughs or further military exchanges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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