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科技·Nuke

美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？

Market icon
科技·Nuke

美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？

是

28% 機率
Polymarket

$21,861 交易量

是

28% 機率
Polymarket

$21,861 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 74% implied probability for the U.S. granting a full operating license for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) historically protracted licensing timelines despite recent regulatory momentum. On March 4, the NRC issued its first commercial construction permit in nearly a decade to TerraPower's Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor in Wyoming—a milestone for advanced nuclear deployment—but this precedes years of construction, testing, and an operating license application, with TerraPower targeting 2030 operations. The NRC's March 25 unveiling of Part 53, a streamlined framework for next-generation reactors including non-light-water designs, signals faster future reviews with 18-month deadlines, yet no full licenses have materialized this year amid ongoing hurdles like fuel supply and safety demonstrations for applicants such as Oklo and NuScale. Key catalysts include pending combined license submissions and executive reforms accelerating advanced reactor pathways.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$21,861
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 74% implied probability for the U.S. granting a full operating license for a new nuclear reactor in 2026, driven by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) historically protracted licensing timelines despite recent regulatory momentum. On March 4, the NRC issued its first commercial construction permit in nearly a decade to TerraPower's Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor in Wyoming—a milestone for advanced nuclear deployment—but this precedes years of construction, testing, and an operating license application, with TerraPower targeting 2030 operations. The NRC's March 25 unveiling of Part 53, a streamlined framework for next-generation reactors including non-light-water designs, signals faster future reviews with 18-month deadlines, yet no full licenses have materialized this year amid ongoing hurdles like fuel supply and safety demonstrations for applicants such as Oklo and NuScale. Key catalysts include pending combined license submissions and executive reforms accelerating advanced reactor pathways.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$21,861
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國批准2026年新核反應爐許可？" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？" has generated $21.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？" is "美國批准2026年新核反應爐許可？" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.