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選舉·主要

TX-38共和黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
選舉·主要

TX-38共和黨初選獲勝者

Jon Bonck 94.2%

Shelly deZevallos 1.5%

Jennifer Sundt 1.0%

艾弗瑞·艾耶斯 <1%

Polymarket

$28,301 交易量

Jon Bonck 94.2%

Shelly deZevallos 1.5%

Jennifer Sundt 1.0%

艾弗瑞·艾耶斯 <1%

Polymarket

$28,301 交易量

Jon Bonck

$16,452 交易量

94%

Shelly deZevallos

$3,015 交易量

1%

Jennifer Sundt

$2,227 交易量

1%

艾弗瑞·艾耶斯

$2,210 交易量

1%

邁克爾·普拉特

$0 交易量

1%

Jeff Yuna

$2,411 交易量

<1%

Craig Goralski

$0 交易量

<1%

巴雷特·麥納布

$0 交易量

<1%

Larry Rubin

$1,985 交易量

<1%

Carmen Montiel

$0 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck holds a commanding 94% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner for the Texas 38th Congressional District Republican primary runoff on May 26, driven by his dominant 47% in the March 3 crowded 10-candidate field—nearly double runner-up Shelly deZevallos's 19%—in this open seat GOP stronghold vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt. Key factors include President Trump's endorsement, Sen. Ted Cruz's backing, Club for Growth support, top fundraising exceeding $1 million, and recent endorsement from Rep. Guy Reschenthaler on March 30. DeZevallos's grassroots appeal and $666,000 raised offer limited traction; realistic challenges would require a Bonck scandal, attack ads eroding his lead, or low-turnout dynamics favoring her base in the Houston-area battleground.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$28,301
結束日期
2026-05-26
市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck holds a commanding 94% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner for the Texas 38th Congressional District Republican primary runoff on May 26, driven by his dominant 47% in the March 3 crowded 10-candidate field—nearly double runner-up Shelly deZevallos's 19%—in this open seat GOP stronghold vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt. Key factors include President Trump's endorsement, Sen. Ted Cruz's backing, Club for Growth support, top fundraising exceeding $1 million, and recent endorsement from Rep. Guy Reschenthaler on March 30. DeZevallos's grassroots appeal and $666,000 raised offer limited traction; realistic challenges would require a Bonck scandal, attack ads eroding his lead, or low-turnout dynamics favoring her base in the Houston-area battleground.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$28,301
結束日期
2026-05-26
市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-38共和黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jon Bonck" at 94%, followed by "Shelly deZevallos" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-38共和黨初選獲勝者" has generated $28.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-38共和黨初選獲勝者," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-38共和黨初選獲勝者" is "Jon Bonck" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Shelly deZevallos" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-38共和黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.