Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow win for Emmanuel Grégoire in the Paris mayoral election runoff at over 85% probability for a margin under 10%, driven by recent polls showing him edging Rachida Dati by 4-6 points in head-to-head matchups. An October Ifop survey for Le Figaro pegged Grégoire at 52% to Dati's 48%, consistent with prior Elabe polling at 54-46, reflecting his incumbent advantages and potential leftist vote consolidation against her conservative appeal. Dati's 15% outright win odds capture right-wing polling gains but fall short of upsetting the race per current data. No major catalysts have shifted dynamics recently, with stability favoring tight margins ahead of 2026 voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於艾曼紐·格雷瓜 <5% 63%
埃馬紐埃爾·格雷瓜爾 5–10％ 22%
拉席達·達蒂勝出 15%
艾曼紐·格雷瓜 10–15% 1.8%
$129,533 交易量
$129,533 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
伊曼紐·格雷瓜 20%+
1%
Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20%
1%
艾曼紐·格雷瓜 10–15%
2%
埃馬紐埃爾·格雷瓜爾 5–10％
22%
艾曼紐·格雷瓜 <5%
63%
拉席達·達蒂勝出
15%
艾曼紐·格雷瓜 <5% 63%
埃馬紐埃爾·格雷瓜爾 5–10％ 22%
拉席達·達蒂勝出 15%
艾曼紐·格雷瓜 10–15% 1.8%
$129,533 交易量
$129,533 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
伊曼紐·格雷瓜 20%+
$14,323 交易量
1%
Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20%
$12,778 交易量
1%
艾曼紐·格雷瓜 10–15%
$16,482 交易量
2%
埃馬紐埃爾·格雷瓜爾 5–10％
$27,126 交易量
22%
艾曼紐·格雷瓜 <5%
$32,360 交易量
63%
拉席達·達蒂勝出
$26,464 交易量
15%
The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市場開放時間： Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
交易量
$129,533結束日期
Mar 22, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
交易量
$129,533結束日期
Mar 22, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a narrow win for Emmanuel Grégoire in the Paris mayoral election runoff at over 85% probability for a margin under 10%, driven by recent polls showing him edging Rachida Dati by 4-6 points in head-to-head matchups. An October Ifop survey for Le Figaro pegged Grégoire at 52% to Dati's 48%, consistent with prior Elabe polling at 54-46, reflecting his incumbent advantages and potential leftist vote consolidation against her conservative appeal. Dati's 15% outright win odds capture right-wing polling gains but fall short of upsetting the race per current data. No major catalysts have shifted dynamics recently, with stability favoring tight margins ahead of 2026 voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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