**Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 51.5% to win NJ-07's House seat over Republicans at 27%, capturing the toss-up nature of this battleground district amid its long-term Democratic shift and midterm headwinds for the president's party.** Incumbent Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R) holds a fundraising edge with over $3.2 million raised but faces a consolidated Democratic challenge after the primary field narrowed to four candidates—frontrunner Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Brian Varela, and Michael Roth—following Megan O’Rourke and Beth Adubato's withdrawals on March 24 ahead of the filing deadline. Cook Political Report's toss-up rating highlights a tougher environment for Kean and expectations of a stronger Democratic nominee, with June 2 primaries as the next key catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
共和黨
40%
民主黨
46%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
共和黨
$0 交易量
40%
民主黨
$0 交易量
46%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 51.5% to win NJ-07's House seat over Republicans at 27%, capturing the toss-up nature of this battleground district amid its long-term Democratic shift and midterm headwinds for the president's party.** Incumbent Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R) holds a fundraising edge with over $3.2 million raised but faces a consolidated Democratic challenge after the primary field narrowed to four candidates—frontrunner Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Brian Varela, and Michael Roth—following Megan O’Rourke and Beth Adubato's withdrawals on March 24 ahead of the filing deadline. Cook Political Report's toss-up rating highlights a tougher environment for Kean and expectations of a stronger Democratic nominee, with June 2 primaries as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 4, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 51.5% to win NJ-07's House seat over Republicans at 27%, capturing the toss-up nature of this battleground district amid its long-term Democratic shift and midterm headwinds for the president's party.** Incumbent Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R) holds a fundraising edge with over $3.2 million raised but faces a consolidated Democratic challenge after the primary field narrowed to four candidates—frontrunner Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Brian Varela, and Michael Roth—following Megan O’Rourke and Beth Adubato's withdrawals on March 24 ahead of the filing deadline. Cook Political Report's toss-up rating highlights a tougher environment for Kean and expectations of a stronger Democratic nominee, with June 2 primaries as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 4, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 51.5% to win NJ-07's House seat over Republicans at 27%, capturing the toss-up nature of this battleground district amid its long-term Democratic shift and midterm headwinds for the president's party.** Incumbent Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R) holds a fundraising edge with over $3.2 million raised but faces a consolidated Democratic challenge after the primary field narrowed to four candidates—frontrunner Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Brian Varela, and Michael Roth—following Megan O’Rourke and Beth Adubato's withdrawals on March 24 ahead of the filing deadline. Cook Political Report's toss-up rating highlights a tougher environment for Kean and expectations of a stronger Democratic nominee, with June 2 primaries as the next key catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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