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選舉·主要

NH-01民主黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
選舉·主要

NH-01民主黨初選獲勝者

Stefany Shaheen 60%

Maura Sullivan 22%

Carleigh Beriont 11%

希斯·霍華德 10.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Stefany Shaheen 60%

Maura Sullivan 22%

Carleigh Beriont 11%

希斯·霍華德 10.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Stefany Shaheen

$6,852 交易量

60%

Maura Sullivan

$1,004 交易量

22%

Carleigh Beriont

$0 交易量

11%

希斯·霍華德

$0 交易量

11%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Stefany Shaheen as the clear frontrunner at 59.5% implied probability for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent polling leads—including 33% in the January University of New Hampshire survey among likely voters—and high name recognition as the daughter of U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, despite high undecided rates leaving room for shifts. Maura Sullivan follows at 22.5%, supported by leading fundraising with $1.1 million cash on hand through late 2025 and her late-March anti-corruption campaign push amid scrutiny over Palantir executive donations. Carleigh Beriont (11%) and Heath Howard (5.2%) trail with minimal poll support, as the crowded field and no new surveys since January sustain Shaheen's edge in skin-in-the-game assessments.

Trader consensus positions Stefany Shaheen as the clear frontrunner at 59.5% implied probability for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent polling leads—including 33% in the January University of New Hampshire survey among likely voters—and high name recognition as the daughter of U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, despite high undecided rates leaving room for shifts. Maura Sullivan follows at 22.5%, supported by leading fundraising with $1.1 million cash on hand through late 2025 and her late-March anti-corruption campaign push amid scrutiny over Palantir executive donations. Carleigh Beriont (11%) and Heath Howard (5.2%) trail with minimal poll support, as the crowded field and no new surveys since January sustain Shaheen's edge in skin-in-the-game assessments.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Stefany Shaheen as the clear frontrunner at 59.5% implied probability for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent polling leads—including 33% in the January University of New Hampshire survey among likely voters—and high name recognition as the daughter of U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, despite high undecided rates leaving room for shifts. Maura Sullivan follows at 22.5%, supported by leading fundraising with $1.1 million cash on hand through late 2025 and her late-March anti-corruption campaign push amid scrutiny over Palantir executive donations. Carleigh Beriont (11%) and Heath Howard (5.2%) trail with minimal poll support, as the crowded field and no new surveys since January sustain Shaheen's edge in skin-in-the-game assessments.

Trader consensus positions Stefany Shaheen as the clear frontrunner at 59.5% implied probability for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent polling leads—including 33% in the January University of New Hampshire survey among likely voters—and high name recognition as the daughter of U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, despite high undecided rates leaving room for shifts. Maura Sullivan follows at 22.5%, supported by leading fundraising with $1.1 million cash on hand through late 2025 and her late-March anti-corruption campaign push amid scrutiny over Palantir executive donations. Carleigh Beriont (11%) and Heath Howard (5.2%) trail with minimal poll support, as the crowded field and no new surveys since January sustain Shaheen's edge in skin-in-the-game assessments.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"NH-01民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stefany Shaheen" at 60%, followed by "Maura Sullivan" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NH-01民主黨初選獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NH-01民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NH-01民主黨初選獲勝者" is "Stefany Shaheen" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Maura Sullivan" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NH-01民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.