Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26, direct military action against Iran has paused, with no verified escalations in the past month amid mutual de-escalation signals. Iran downplayed the strikes as limited and vowed measured retaliation without further launches, while U.S. diplomacy urged restraint to avoid broader regional war. Ongoing Israeli and U.S. operations target Iranian-backed proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Syria, but these fall short of direct action on Iranian soil. Traders weigh risks of renewed strikes from intelligence leaks, proxy setbacks, or diplomatic breakdowns, with no imminent summits or deadlines confirmed.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$150,330 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
3%
March 29
4%
March 30
3%
March 31
6%
4月15日
31%
4月30日
54%
5月31日
53%
6月30日
77%
$150,330 交易量
March 26
$19,977 交易量
<1%
March 27
$7,785 交易量
<1%
March 28
$13,763 交易量
3%
March 29
$20,021 交易量
4%
March 30
$16,141 交易量
3%
March 31
$71,997 交易量
6%
4月15日
$489 交易量
31%
4月30日
$2 交易量
54%
5月31日
$152 交易量
53%
6月30日
$2 交易量
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26, direct military action against Iran has paused, with no verified escalations in the past month amid mutual de-escalation signals. Iran downplayed the strikes as limited and vowed measured retaliation without further launches, while U.S. diplomacy urged restraint to avoid broader regional war. Ongoing Israeli and U.S. operations target Iranian-backed proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Syria, but these fall short of direct action on Iranian soil. Traders weigh risks of renewed strikes from intelligence leaks, proxy setbacks, or diplomatic breakdowns, with no imminent summits or deadlines confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$150,330結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26, direct military action against Iran has paused, with no verified escalations in the past month amid mutual de-escalation signals. Iran downplayed the strikes as limited and vowed measured retaliation without further launches, while U.S. diplomacy urged restraint to avoid broader regional war. Ongoing Israeli and U.S. operations target Iranian-backed proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Syria, but these fall short of direct action on Iranian soil. Traders weigh risks of renewed strikes from intelligence leaks, proxy setbacks, or diplomatic breakdowns, with no imminent summits or deadlines confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$150,330結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Following Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26, direct military action against Iran has paused, with no verified escalations in the past month amid mutual de-escalation signals. Iran downplayed the strikes as limited and vowed measured retaliation without further launches, while U.S. diplomacy urged restraint to avoid broader regional war. Ongoing Israeli and U.S. operations target Iranian-backed proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Syria, but these fall short of direct action on Iranian soil. Traders weigh risks of renewed strikes from intelligence leaks, proxy setbacks, or diplomatic breakdowns, with no imminent summits or deadlines confirmed.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions