U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, under Operation Epic Fury, have intensified over the past month since late February 2026 initial strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile facilities, and infrastructure across 26 provinces, including Tehran and Isfahan. Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Israel and regional U.S. assets, killing four American service members, while blocking the Strait of Hormuz and mobilizing proxies like Hezbollah. As of March 30, U.S. jets repositioned for fresh strikes amid over 5,500 total sorties and 60 Iranian vessels sunk, with President Trump signaling a prolonged campaign despite dismissed ceasefire proposals. Traders price extended action through June per crowd wisdom, watching backchannel talks via Pakistan, Gulf diplomacy, and potential ground escalation risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$29,916 交易量
2026-04-30
April 1
1%
April 2
3%
April 3
4%
April 4
23%
April 5
22%
April 6
14%
April 7
30%
April 8
42%
April 9
20%
April 10
43%
April 11
42%
April 12
41%
April 13
43%
April 14
14%
April 15
43%
April 16
44%
April 17
44%
April 18
45%
April 19
45%
April 20
44%
April 21
45%
April 22
44%
April 23
45%
April 24
45%
April 25
28%
April 26
44%
April 27
45%
April 28
45%
April 29
45%
April 30
41%
$29,916 交易量
April 1
$1,601 交易量
1%
April 2
$368 交易量
3%
April 3
$157 交易量
4%
April 4
$0 交易量
23%
April 5
$0 交易量
22%
April 6
$6 交易量
14%
April 7
$0 交易量
30%
April 8
$1 交易量
42%
April 9
$2,768 交易量
20%
April 10
$0 交易量
43%
April 11
$0 交易量
42%
April 12
$0 交易量
41%
April 13
$0 交易量
43%
April 14
$3,440 交易量
14%
April 15
$0 交易量
43%
April 16
$0 交易量
44%
April 17
$0 交易量
44%
April 18
$0 交易量
45%
April 19
$0 交易量
45%
April 20
$0 交易量
44%
April 21
$0 交易量
45%
April 22
$0 交易量
44%
April 23
$0 交易量
45%
April 24
$0 交易量
45%
April 25
$2,740 交易量
28%
April 26
$0 交易量
44%
April 27
$0 交易量
45%
April 28
$0 交易量
45%
April 29
$0 交易量
45%
April 30
$18,850 交易量
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, under Operation Epic Fury, have intensified over the past month since late February 2026 initial strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile facilities, and infrastructure across 26 provinces, including Tehran and Isfahan. Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Israel and regional U.S. assets, killing four American service members, while blocking the Strait of Hormuz and mobilizing proxies like Hezbollah. As of March 30, U.S. jets repositioned for fresh strikes amid over 5,500 total sorties and 60 Iranian vessels sunk, with President Trump signaling a prolonged campaign despite dismissed ceasefire proposals. Traders price extended action through June per crowd wisdom, watching backchannel talks via Pakistan, Gulf diplomacy, and potential ground escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$29,916結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, under Operation Epic Fury, have intensified over the past month since late February 2026 initial strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile facilities, and infrastructure across 26 provinces, including Tehran and Isfahan. Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Israel and regional U.S. assets, killing four American service members, while blocking the Strait of Hormuz and mobilizing proxies like Hezbollah. As of March 30, U.S. jets repositioned for fresh strikes amid over 5,500 total sorties and 60 Iranian vessels sunk, with President Trump signaling a prolonged campaign despite dismissed ceasefire proposals. Traders price extended action through June per crowd wisdom, watching backchannel talks via Pakistan, Gulf diplomacy, and potential ground escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$29,916結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran, under Operation Epic Fury, have intensified over the past month since late February 2026 initial strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile facilities, and infrastructure across 26 provinces, including Tehran and Isfahan. Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Israel and regional U.S. assets, killing four American service members, while blocking the Strait of Hormuz and mobilizing proxies like Hezbollah. As of March 30, U.S. jets repositioned for fresh strikes amid over 5,500 total sorties and 60 Iranian vessels sunk, with President Trump signaling a prolonged campaign despite dismissed ceasefire proposals. Traders price extended action through June per crowd wisdom, watching backchannel talks via Pakistan, Gulf diplomacy, and potential ground escalation risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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