Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the MI-02 House race stems from the district's deep-red partisan lean—rated R+20 by Cook Political Report—and his unchallenged incumbency since 2022, bolstered by a low-profile record as an appropriations subcommittee chair. Covering rural central Michigan, the seat has consistently delivered double-digit GOP margins, with Moolenaar's January reelection launch facing a fragmented Democratic field of six primary contenders but no high-profile recruit. Absent polls yet, historical base rates for safe Republican districts like this reinforce the pricing. Upsets could arise from a late star Democratic nominee before the April 21 filing deadline, Moolenaar scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$16,879 交易量
$16,879 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
92%
民主黨
9%
$16,879 交易量
$16,879 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
$11,292 交易量
92%
民主黨
$5,587 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the MI-02 House race stems from the district's deep-red partisan lean—rated R+20 by Cook Political Report—and his unchallenged incumbency since 2022, bolstered by a low-profile record as an appropriations subcommittee chair. Covering rural central Michigan, the seat has consistently delivered double-digit GOP margins, with Moolenaar's January reelection launch facing a fragmented Democratic field of six primary contenders but no high-profile recruit. Absent polls yet, historical base rates for safe Republican districts like this reinforce the pricing. Upsets could arise from a late star Democratic nominee before the April 21 filing deadline, Moolenaar scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$16,879結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the MI-02 House race stems from the district's deep-red partisan lean—rated R+20 by Cook Political Report—and his unchallenged incumbency since 2022, bolstered by a low-profile record as an appropriations subcommittee chair. Covering rural central Michigan, the seat has consistently delivered double-digit GOP margins, with Moolenaar's January reelection launch facing a fragmented Democratic field of six primary contenders but no high-profile recruit. Absent polls yet, historical base rates for safe Republican districts like this reinforce the pricing. Upsets could arise from a late star Democratic nominee before the April 21 filing deadline, Moolenaar scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$16,879結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Moolenaar's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% in the MI-02 House race stems from the district's deep-red partisan lean—rated R+20 by Cook Political Report—and his unchallenged incumbency since 2022, bolstered by a low-profile record as an appropriations subcommittee chair. Covering rural central Michigan, the seat has consistently delivered double-digit GOP margins, with Moolenaar's January reelection launch facing a fragmented Democratic field of six primary contenders but no high-profile recruit. Absent polls yet, historical base rates for safe Republican districts like this reinforce the pricing. Upsets could arise from a late star Democratic nominee before the April 21 filing deadline, Moolenaar scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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