Market icon
世界·中東

伊朗x以色列/美國衝突結束於... ？

Market icon
世界·中東

伊朗x以色列/美國衝突結束於... ？

$12,325,962 交易量

2026-04-07
Polymarket

$12,325,962 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$5,157,839 交易量

<1%

4月15日

$1,754,384 交易量

6%

4月7日

$998,470 交易量

1%

4月30日

$1,201,250 交易量

26%

5月15日

$1,591,969 交易量

41%

6月30日

$1,171,997 交易量

66%

12月31日

$451,753 交易量

85%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites continue amid retaliatory missile barrages from Iran targeting Israel and Gulf infrastructure, as seen in explosions across central Iran on April 2 and projectiles striking southern Israel. The conflict, ignited by initial US-Israeli attacks on February 28 targeting Tehran's leadership and military assets, has expanded with Houthi involvement and threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping. President Trump's signals of an imminent wind-down, backed by diplomatic talks in Pakistan involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, alongside Rubio's assessment of resolution in weeks, drive trader consensus toward higher probabilities for cessation by June 30 (66%) or December 31 (86%), though fresh escalations keep near-term odds low at 26% by April 15. Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations add uncertainty ahead of any ceasefire.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.

A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.

This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.

Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$12,325,962
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites continue amid retaliatory missile barrages from Iran targeting Israel and Gulf infrastructure, as seen in explosions across central Iran on April 2 and projectiles striking southern Israel. The conflict, ignited by initial US-Israeli attacks on February 28 targeting Tehran's leadership and military assets, has expanded with Houthi involvement and threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping. President Trump's signals of an imminent wind-down, backed by diplomatic talks in Pakistan involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, alongside Rubio's assessment of resolution in weeks, drive trader consensus toward higher probabilities for cessation by June 30 (66%) or December 31 (86%), though fresh escalations keep near-term odds low at 26% by April 15. Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations add uncertainty ahead of any ceasefire.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.

A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.

This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.

Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$12,325,962
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"伊朗x以色列/美國衝突結束於... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 85%, followed by "6月30日" at 66%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伊朗x以色列/美國衝突結束於... ？" has generated $12.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伊朗x以色列/美國衝突結束於... ？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "伊朗x以色列/美國衝突結束於... ？" is "12月31日" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月30日" at 66%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "伊朗x以色列/美國衝突結束於... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.