Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2–3 ships as the most likely outcome for Iran successfully targeting vessels by April 30, driven by Iran's asymmetric naval tactics in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Recent developments include Iran's April 1 attack on a Panamanian-flagged ship using missiles or drones, following deliberate strikes on at least two civilian commercial vessels around March 23 and suicide boat rammings of oil tankers near Basra earlier in March. U.S. CENTCOM strikes have destroyed over 140 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy vessels, including key assets, significantly degrading Tehran's conventional capabilities and capping escalation potential. The 10+ outcome at 33% reflects tail risks from further missile barrages or mine deployments, while shipping disruptions persist without full strait closure. Upcoming U.S. and coalition responses could further limit Iranian actions before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於2–3 51%
10+ 33.1%
4–5 18%
6–7 14%
$35,762 交易量
$35,762 交易量
2026-04-30
2–3
49%
4–5
18%
6–7
14%
8–9
8%
10+
33%
2–3 51%
10+ 33.1%
4–5 18%
6–7 14%
$35,762 交易量
$35,762 交易量
2026-04-30
2–3
$3,646 交易量
49%
4–5
$169 交易量
18%
6–7
$2,163 交易量
14%
8–9
$4,889 交易量
8%
10+
$166 交易量
33%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2–3 ships as the most likely outcome for Iran successfully targeting vessels by April 30, driven by Iran's asymmetric naval tactics in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Recent developments include Iran's April 1 attack on a Panamanian-flagged ship using missiles or drones, following deliberate strikes on at least two civilian commercial vessels around March 23 and suicide boat rammings of oil tankers near Basra earlier in March. U.S. CENTCOM strikes have destroyed over 140 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy vessels, including key assets, significantly degrading Tehran's conventional capabilities and capping escalation potential. The 10+ outcome at 33% reflects tail risks from further missile barrages or mine deployments, while shipping disruptions persist without full strait closure. Upcoming U.S. and coalition responses could further limit Iranian actions before the deadline.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
交易量
$35,762結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2–3 ships as the most likely outcome for Iran successfully targeting vessels by April 30, driven by Iran's asymmetric naval tactics in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Recent developments include Iran's April 1 attack on a Panamanian-flagged ship using missiles or drones, following deliberate strikes on at least two civilian commercial vessels around March 23 and suicide boat rammings of oil tankers near Basra earlier in March. U.S. CENTCOM strikes have destroyed over 140 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy vessels, including key assets, significantly degrading Tehran's conventional capabilities and capping escalation potential. The 10+ outcome at 33% reflects tail risks from further missile barrages or mine deployments, while shipping disruptions persist without full strait closure. Upcoming U.S. and coalition responses could further limit Iranian actions before the deadline.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$35,762結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2–3 ships as the most likely outcome for Iran successfully targeting vessels by April 30, driven by Iran's asymmetric naval tactics in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Recent developments include Iran's April 1 attack on a Panamanian-flagged ship using missiles or drones, following deliberate strikes on at least two civilian commercial vessels around March 23 and suicide boat rammings of oil tankers near Basra earlier in March. U.S. CENTCOM strikes have destroyed over 140 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy vessels, including key assets, significantly degrading Tehran's conventional capabilities and capping escalation potential. The 10+ outcome at 33% reflects tail risks from further missile barrages or mine deployments, while shipping disruptions persist without full strait closure. Upcoming U.S. and coalition responses could further limit Iranian actions before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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