Trader consensus on Polymarket prices around seven countries at 30% and eight at 24%, reflecting roughly six to seven confirmed US military actions in 2026 so far—including major airstrikes against Iran since late February, a March 27 strike in Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, and ongoing counterterrorism operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Venezuela. The tight race among 6–10 outcomes stems from uncertainty in the escalating Iran conflict, now on day 33 with US strikes like April 2 hits on Tehran-area infrastructure under Operation Epic Fury, potentially spilling into proxy nations such as Lebanon or additional African theaters via CENTCOM and AFRICOM. De-escalation via diplomacy or ceasefire talks could cap the total at lower numbers, while Iranian retaliation or new hotspots like Latin America might push toward 9–10.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於7 30.0%
8 24.2%
9 15.3%
10 11.4%
$728,030 交易量
$728,030 交易量
2026-12-31
6
10%
7
30%
8
24%
9
15%
10
11%
11
4%
12
2%
13
1%
14
1%
15+
5%
7 30.0%
8 24.2%
9 15.3%
10 11.4%
$728,030 交易量
$728,030 交易量
2026-12-31
6
$417,366 交易量
10%
7
$4,282 交易量
30%
8
$11,399 交易量
24%
9
$8,921 交易量
15%
10
$10,292 交易量
11%
11
$8,061 交易量
4%
12
$10,045 交易量
2%
13
$7,250 交易量
1%
14
$41,441 交易量
1%
15+
$49,132 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices around seven countries at 30% and eight at 24%, reflecting roughly six to seven confirmed US military actions in 2026 so far—including major airstrikes against Iran since late February, a March 27 strike in Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, and ongoing counterterrorism operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Venezuela. The tight race among 6–10 outcomes stems from uncertainty in the escalating Iran conflict, now on day 33 with US strikes like April 2 hits on Tehran-area infrastructure under Operation Epic Fury, potentially spilling into proxy nations such as Lebanon or additional African theaters via CENTCOM and AFRICOM. De-escalation via diplomacy or ceasefire talks could cap the total at lower numbers, while Iranian retaliation or new hotspots like Latin America might push toward 9–10.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
交易量
$728,030結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices around seven countries at 30% and eight at 24%, reflecting roughly six to seven confirmed US military actions in 2026 so far—including major airstrikes against Iran since late February, a March 27 strike in Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, and ongoing counterterrorism operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Venezuela. The tight race among 6–10 outcomes stems from uncertainty in the escalating Iran conflict, now on day 33 with US strikes like April 2 hits on Tehran-area infrastructure under Operation Epic Fury, potentially spilling into proxy nations such as Lebanon or additional African theaters via CENTCOM and AFRICOM. De-escalation via diplomacy or ceasefire talks could cap the total at lower numbers, while Iranian retaliation or new hotspots like Latin America might push toward 9–10.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$728,030結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices around seven countries at 30% and eight at 24%, reflecting roughly six to seven confirmed US military actions in 2026 so far—including major airstrikes against Iran since late February, a March 27 strike in Somalia targeting al-Shabaab, and ongoing counterterrorism operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Venezuela. The tight race among 6–10 outcomes stems from uncertainty in the escalating Iran conflict, now on day 33 with US strikes like April 2 hits on Tehran-area infrastructure under Operation Epic Fury, potentially spilling into proxy nations such as Lebanon or additional African theaters via CENTCOM and AFRICOM. De-escalation via diplomacy or ceasefire talks could cap the total at lower numbers, while Iranian retaliation or new hotspots like Latin America might push toward 9–10.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions