Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven distinct countries at 29%, with eight and nine close behind, reflecting a year-to-date tally of roughly six—encompassing counterterrorism airstrikes in Somalia and Syria, ongoing Yemen operations against Houthis, plus bold new interventions like January's Venezuela raid capturing Nicolás Maduro and February-April strikes on Iran amid its nuclear buildup and recent retaliation on Gulf refineries. This tight clustering stems from uncertainty over the remaining nine months, as baseline CENTCOM and AFRICOM drone and missile actions hold steady while Iran's war risks proxy escalations into Lebanon or Iraq. Separation could arise from expanded Latin American narco-strikes (Ecuador, Colombia), African militant surges, or North Korean provocations prompting preemptive action.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於7 29.3%
8 24.9%
9 15.3%
10 11.3%
$724,546 交易量
$724,546 交易量
2026-12-31
6
11%
7
29%
8
25%
9
15%
10
11%
11
4%
12
2%
13
1%
14
1%
15+
4%
7 29.3%
8 24.9%
9 15.3%
10 11.3%
$724,546 交易量
$724,546 交易量
2026-12-31
6
$417,366 交易量
11%
7
$3,938 交易量
29%
8
$8,259 交易量
25%
9
$8,921 交易量
15%
10
$10,292 交易量
11%
11
$8,061 交易量
4%
12
$10,045 交易量
2%
13
$7,250 交易量
1%
14
$41,441 交易量
1%
15+
$49,132 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven distinct countries at 29%, with eight and nine close behind, reflecting a year-to-date tally of roughly six—encompassing counterterrorism airstrikes in Somalia and Syria, ongoing Yemen operations against Houthis, plus bold new interventions like January's Venezuela raid capturing Nicolás Maduro and February-April strikes on Iran amid its nuclear buildup and recent retaliation on Gulf refineries. This tight clustering stems from uncertainty over the remaining nine months, as baseline CENTCOM and AFRICOM drone and missile actions hold steady while Iran's war risks proxy escalations into Lebanon or Iraq. Separation could arise from expanded Latin American narco-strikes (Ecuador, Colombia), African militant surges, or North Korean provocations prompting preemptive action.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
交易量
$724,546結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven distinct countries at 29%, with eight and nine close behind, reflecting a year-to-date tally of roughly six—encompassing counterterrorism airstrikes in Somalia and Syria, ongoing Yemen operations against Houthis, plus bold new interventions like January's Venezuela raid capturing Nicolás Maduro and February-April strikes on Iran amid its nuclear buildup and recent retaliation on Gulf refineries. This tight clustering stems from uncertainty over the remaining nine months, as baseline CENTCOM and AFRICOM drone and missile actions hold steady while Iran's war risks proxy escalations into Lebanon or Iraq. Separation could arise from expanded Latin American narco-strikes (Ecuador, Colombia), African militant surges, or North Korean provocations prompting preemptive action.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$724,546結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven distinct countries at 29%, with eight and nine close behind, reflecting a year-to-date tally of roughly six—encompassing counterterrorism airstrikes in Somalia and Syria, ongoing Yemen operations against Houthis, plus bold new interventions like January's Venezuela raid capturing Nicolás Maduro and February-April strikes on Iran amid its nuclear buildup and recent retaliation on Gulf refineries. This tight clustering stems from uncertainty over the remaining nine months, as baseline CENTCOM and AFRICOM drone and missile actions hold steady while Iran's war risks proxy escalations into Lebanon or Iraq. Separation could arise from expanded Latin American narco-strikes (Ecuador, Colombia), African militant surges, or North Korean provocations prompting preemptive action.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions