Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly three sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, and Syria—as targets of Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes in March 2026, reflecting verified escalations in the ongoing Iran war that began late February. Extensive Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and Tehran throughout the month, while Hezbollah's March 2 attacks triggered ground incursions and airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut. A March 20 response targeted Syrian government camps in Suwayda amid Druze clashes. No confirmed actions against additional states like Yemen occurred despite Houthi missile barrages on Israel starting March 28. Late-breaking reports or oracle disputes over strike classifications could challenge this, though resolution nears with the month's close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3 100.0%
少於或等於1 <1%
2 <1%
4 個或以上 <1%
$385,574 交易量
$385,574 交易量
2026-03-31
少於或等於1
否
2
否
3
是
4 個或以上
否
3 100.0%
少於或等於1 <1%
2 <1%
4 個或以上 <1%
$385,574 交易量
$385,574 交易量
2026-03-31
少於或等於1
$29,186 交易量
否
2
$0 交易量
否
3
$118,726 交易量
是
4 個或以上
$237,662 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly three sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, and Syria—as targets of Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes in March 2026, reflecting verified escalations in the ongoing Iran war that began late February. Extensive Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and Tehran throughout the month, while Hezbollah's March 2 attacks triggered ground incursions and airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut. A March 20 response targeted Syrian government camps in Suwayda amid Druze clashes. No confirmed actions against additional states like Yemen occurred despite Houthi missile barrages on Israel starting March 28. Late-breaking reports or oracle disputes over strike classifications could challenge this, though resolution nears with the month's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$385,574結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly three sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, and Syria—as targets of Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes in March 2026, reflecting verified escalations in the ongoing Iran war that began late February. Extensive Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and Tehran throughout the month, while Hezbollah's March 2 attacks triggered ground incursions and airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut. A March 20 response targeted Syrian government camps in Suwayda amid Druze clashes. No confirmed actions against additional states like Yemen occurred despite Houthi missile barrages on Israel starting March 28. Late-breaking reports or oracle disputes over strike classifications could challenge this, though resolution nears with the month's close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$385,574結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly three sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, and Syria—as targets of Israeli drone, missile, or airstrikes in March 2026, reflecting verified escalations in the ongoing Iran war that began late February. Extensive Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and Tehran throughout the month, while Hezbollah's March 2 attacks triggered ground incursions and airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut. A March 20 response targeted Syrian government camps in Suwayda amid Druze clashes. No confirmed actions against additional states like Yemen occurred despite Houthi missile barrages on Israel starting March 28. Late-breaking reports or oracle disputes over strike classifications could challenge this, though resolution nears with the month's close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions