Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51% implied probability for London's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on April 9, driven by a recent Met Office forecast update on April 4 showing a sharp warming trend through mid-week, with highs climbing to 21°C amid sunny intervals after earlier cloudy, windy conditions. This builds on March's record 19.2°C—the hottest of 2026 so far—and hints of spring high pressure, contrasting the long-range outlook of changeable Atlantic fronts bringing light showers (40% chance early April 9) and feels-like highs near 14°C. Ensemble model spread, including GFS and ECMWF signals, introduces uncertainty, with potential for ridge amplification boosting southerly flows; daily Met Office updates through April 8 will refine intensification risks against climatological April averages of 13°C. Lower bins like 23–24°C (36.5% each) reflect balanced bets on peak warmth, while sub-22°C outcomes (26.5%) hedge cooler frontal scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in London on April 9?
Highest temperature in London on April 9?
21°C 31%
15°C or below 29%
18°C 26%
20°C 24%
最新
最新
2026-04-09
15°C or below
29%
16°C
22%
17°C
29%
18°C
26%
19°C
18%
20°C
24%
21°C
31%
22°C
18%
23°C
17%
24°C
19%
25°C or higher
7%
21°C 31%
15°C or below 29%
18°C 26%
20°C 24%
最新
最新
2026-04-09
15°C or below
$10 交易量
29%
16°C
$15 交易量
22%
17°C
$22 交易量
29%
18°C
$10 交易量
26%
19°C
$11 交易量
18%
20°C
$14 交易量
24%
21°C
$10 交易量
31%
22°C
$10 交易量
18%
23°C
$10 交易量
17%
24°C
$10 交易量
19%
25°C or higher
$15 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51% implied probability for London's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on April 9, driven by a recent Met Office forecast update on April 4 showing a sharp warming trend through mid-week, with highs climbing to 21°C amid sunny intervals after earlier cloudy, windy conditions. This builds on March's record 19.2°C—the hottest of 2026 so far—and hints of spring high pressure, contrasting the long-range outlook of changeable Atlantic fronts bringing light showers (40% chance early April 9) and feels-like highs near 14°C. Ensemble model spread, including GFS and ECMWF signals, introduces uncertainty, with potential for ridge amplification boosting southerly flows; daily Met Office updates through April 8 will refine intensification risks against climatological April averages of 13°C. Lower bins like 23–24°C (36.5% each) reflect balanced bets on peak warmth, while sub-22°C outcomes (26.5%) hedge cooler frontal scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
交易量
$135結束日期
2026-04-09市場開放時間
Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51% implied probability for London's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on April 9, driven by a recent Met Office forecast update on April 4 showing a sharp warming trend through mid-week, with highs climbing to 21°C amid sunny intervals after earlier cloudy, windy conditions. This builds on March's record 19.2°C—the hottest of 2026 so far—and hints of spring high pressure, contrasting the long-range outlook of changeable Atlantic fronts bringing light showers (40% chance early April 9) and feels-like highs near 14°C. Ensemble model spread, including GFS and ECMWF signals, introduces uncertainty, with potential for ridge amplification boosting southerly flows; daily Met Office updates through April 8 will refine intensification risks against climatological April averages of 13°C. Lower bins like 23–24°C (36.5% each) reflect balanced bets on peak warmth, while sub-22°C outcomes (26.5%) hedge cooler frontal scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$135結束日期
2026-04-09市場開放時間
Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51% implied probability for London's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on April 9, driven by a recent Met Office forecast update on April 4 showing a sharp warming trend through mid-week, with highs climbing to 21°C amid sunny intervals after earlier cloudy, windy conditions. This builds on March's record 19.2°C—the hottest of 2026 so far—and hints of spring high pressure, contrasting the long-range outlook of changeable Atlantic fronts bringing light showers (40% chance early April 9) and feels-like highs near 14°C. Ensemble model spread, including GFS and ECMWF signals, introduces uncertainty, with potential for ridge amplification boosting southerly flows; daily Met Office updates through April 8 will refine intensification risks against climatological April averages of 13°C. Lower bins like 23–24°C (36.5% each) reflect balanced bets on peak warmth, while sub-22°C outcomes (26.5%) hedge cooler frontal scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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