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幾內亞比索總統選舉

Market icon

幾內亞比索總統選舉

費爾南多·迪亞斯·達·科斯塔 28.1%

馬馬杜·伊亞·賈洛 6.8%

烏馬羅·西索科·恩巴洛 6.1%

若澤·馬里奧·瓦斯 3.8%

Polymarket

$283,088 交易量

費爾南多·迪亞斯·達·科斯塔 28.1%

馬馬杜·伊亞·賈洛 6.8%

烏馬羅·西索科·恩巴洛 6.1%

若澤·馬里奧·瓦斯 3.8%

Polymarket

$283,088 交易量

費爾南多·迪亞斯·達·科斯塔

$32,902 交易量

28%

馬馬杜·伊亞·賈洛

$17,373 交易量

7%

烏馬羅·西索科·恩巴洛

$83,318 交易量

6%

若澤·馬里奧·瓦斯

$20,503 交易量

4%

若昂·德·德烏斯·門德斯

$15,607 交易量

3%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$17,939 交易量

3%

奧諾里奧·奧古斯托·洛佩斯

$17,124 交易量

3%

巴西羅·賈

$13,703 交易量

3%

赫庫拉諾·阿曼多·貝金薩

$14,462 交易量

3%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$16,227 交易量

3%

若昂·貝爾納多·維埃拉

$14,245 交易量

3%

Siga Batista

$19,685 交易量

10%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors independent Fernando Dias da Costa at 27.6% implied probability in Guinea-Bissau's fragmented presidential field for the December 6 election, driven by his strong performance as leading challenger in the annulled November 2025 vote before a military coup installed a transitional junta led by General Horta N'Tam. The coup, condemned by AU and ECOWAS, shifted regional pressure toward a one-year transition with elections, banning junta figures from running, while Dias rejected power-sharing offers from exile. Umaro Sissoco Embaló trails at 6.1%, weakened by ouster, and Siga Batista at 10.3% gains from parliamentary visibility. Recent violence, including an opposition activist's killing on April 2, heightens uncertainty; consolidation could hinge on opposition coalitions, ECOWAS mediation, and military neutrality amid no published polls per electoral law.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
交易量
$283,088
結束日期
2025-11-23
市場開放時間
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors independent Fernando Dias da Costa at 27.6% implied probability in Guinea-Bissau's fragmented presidential field for the December 6 election, driven by his strong performance as leading challenger in the annulled November 2025 vote before a military coup installed a transitional junta led by General Horta N'Tam. The coup, condemned by AU and ECOWAS, shifted regional pressure toward a one-year transition with elections, banning junta figures from running, while Dias rejected power-sharing offers from exile. Umaro Sissoco Embaló trails at 6.1%, weakened by ouster, and Siga Batista at 10.3% gains from parliamentary visibility. Recent violence, including an opposition activist's killing on April 2, heightens uncertainty; consolidation could hinge on opposition coalitions, ECOWAS mediation, and military neutrality amid no published polls per electoral law.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
交易量
$283,088
結束日期
2025-11-23
市場開放時間
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"幾內亞比索總統選舉" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "費爾南多·迪亞斯·達·科斯塔" at 28%, followed by "Siga Batista" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "幾內亞比索總統選舉" has generated $283.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "幾內亞比索總統選舉," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "幾內亞比索總統選舉" is "費爾南多·迪亞斯·達·科斯塔" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Siga Batista" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "幾內亞比索總統選舉" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.