Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly backs a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.9% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting consecutive holds of the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% in January 27–28 and March 17–18 decisions. This positioning stems from stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—outpacing expectations—and the March dot plot's median projection of just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026 amid a firm economic footing. Chair Powell emphasized policy appropriateness post-March. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected inflation or labor market weakening ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於暫停–暫停–暫停 97.9%
暫停–暫停–降息 1.1%
其他 <1%
$413,794 交易量
$413,794 交易量
2026-04-29
暫停–暫停–暫停
98%
暫停–暫停–降息
1%
其他
1%
暫停–暫停–暫停 97.9%
暫停–暫停–降息 1.1%
其他 <1%
$413,794 交易量
$413,794 交易量
2026-04-29
暫停–暫停–暫停
$64,607 交易量
98%
暫停–暫停–降息
$172,626 交易量
1%
其他
$136,574 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket strongly backs a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.9% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting consecutive holds of the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% in January 27–28 and March 17–18 decisions. This positioning stems from stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—outpacing expectations—and the March dot plot's median projection of just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026 amid a firm economic footing. Chair Powell emphasized policy appropriateness post-March. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected inflation or labor market weakening ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
交易量
$413,794結束日期
2026-04-29市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket strongly backs a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.9% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting consecutive holds of the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% in January 27–28 and March 17–18 decisions. This positioning stems from stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—outpacing expectations—and the March dot plot's median projection of just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026 amid a firm economic footing. Chair Powell emphasized policy appropriateness post-March. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected inflation or labor market weakening ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$413,794結束日期
2026-04-29市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly backs a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 97.9% implied probability for the Federal Reserve's January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting consecutive holds of the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% in January 27–28 and March 17–18 decisions. This positioning stems from stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—outpacing expectations—and the March dot plot's median projection of just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026 amid a firm economic footing. Chair Powell emphasized policy appropriateness post-March. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected inflation or labor market weakening ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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