Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from March 23-25, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by his historical average of 12-20 posts per day tracked over the past year via analytics sites like SocialBlade. Recent months show moderated activity post-2024 election spikes—averaging 15 daily amid fewer controversies and increased delegation to Grok AI—aligning with non-event weekdays rather than viral surges exceeding 50 posts. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects "wisdom of crowds" pricing for baseline engagement without scheduled Tesla launches or political catalysts. An upset to 65-89 would require unexpected breaking news, like a major SpaceX milestone or public feud, sparking his signature rapid-fire response style.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於40-64 100.0%
少於40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$0.00 交易量
$0.00 交易量
少於40
否
40-64
是
65-89
否
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
40-64 100.0%
少於40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$0.00 交易量
$0.00 交易量
少於40
否
40-64
是
65-89
否
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 21, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from March 23-25, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by his historical average of 12-20 posts per day tracked over the past year via analytics sites like SocialBlade. Recent months show moderated activity post-2024 election spikes—averaging 15 daily amid fewer controversies and increased delegation to Grok AI—aligning with non-event weekdays rather than viral surges exceeding 50 posts. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects "wisdom of crowds" pricing for baseline engagement without scheduled Tesla launches or political catalysts. An upset to 65-89 would require unexpected breaking news, like a major SpaceX milestone or public feud, sparking his signature rapid-fire response style.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions