Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 tweets from March 14-16, 2026 (100% implied probability), anchored in his historical posting cadence of 15-20 X posts daily during routine periods, per recent analytics from tracking sites like TweetDeck metrics and SocialBlade data. Absent major catalysts, this range mirrors post-2024 election lulls and typical non-event windows, where volumes stabilized below 70 after peaking at 90+ during controversies like the Brazil X ban or Tesla earnings. Supporting factors include Elon's focus on DOGE advisory roles and SpaceX ops, curbing viral spirals. Realistic upsets hinge on surprise announcements—Robotaxi unveilings, midterm election drama, or Grok AI breakthroughs—potentially surging output to 65+ via reply chains and memes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於40-64 100.0%
少於40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$622,745 交易量
$622,745 交易量
少於40
否
40-64
是
65-89
否
90-114
否
115-139
否
140-164
否
165-189
否
190-214
否
215-239
否
240+
否
40-64 100.0%
少於40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$622,745 交易量
$622,745 交易量
少於40
否
40-64
是
65-89
否
90-114
否
115-139
否
140-164
否
165-189
否
190-214
否
215-239
否
240+
否
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 12, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 tweets from March 14-16, 2026 (100% implied probability), anchored in his historical posting cadence of 15-20 X posts daily during routine periods, per recent analytics from tracking sites like TweetDeck metrics and SocialBlade data. Absent major catalysts, this range mirrors post-2024 election lulls and typical non-event windows, where volumes stabilized below 70 after peaking at 90+ during controversies like the Brazil X ban or Tesla earnings. Supporting factors include Elon's focus on DOGE advisory roles and SpaceX ops, curbing viral spirals. Realistic upsets hinge on surprise announcements—Robotaxi unveilings, midterm election drama, or Grok AI breakthroughs—potentially surging output to 65+ via reply chains and memes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions