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選舉·美國大選

加州州長選舉獲勝者

Market icon
選舉·美國大選

加州州長選舉獲勝者

埃里克·斯沃韋爾 53%

湯姆·斯泰爾 12.3%

史蒂夫·希爾頓 9.8%

馬特·馬漢 8%

Polymarket

$6,890,088 交易量

埃里克·斯沃韋爾 53%

湯姆·斯泰爾 12.3%

史蒂夫·希爾頓 9.8%

馬特·馬漢 8%

Polymarket

$6,890,088 交易量

埃里克·斯沃韋爾

$100,272 交易量

53%

湯姆·斯泰爾

$2,634,904 交易量

12%

史蒂夫·希爾頓

$683,985 交易量

10%

馬特·馬漢

$167,252 交易量

8%

伊蓮·庫洛蒂

$53,626 交易量

7%

凱蒂·波特

$595,254 交易量

3%

查德·比安科

$671,367 交易量

2%

Eleni Kounalakis

$214,260 交易量

2%

妮可·沙納漢

$147,064 交易量

<1%

邁克爾·楊格

$124,855 交易量

<1%

托尼·阿特金斯

$172,412 交易量

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$113,987 交易量

<1%

哈維爾·貝塞拉

$291,652 交易量

<1%

Rick Caruso

$144,762 交易量

<1%

史蒂芬·克魯貝克

$76,317 交易量

<1%

貝蒂·易

$64,660 交易量

<1%

Kyle Langford

$163,658 交易量

<1%

Leo Zacky

$21,652 交易量

<1%

卡馬拉·哈里斯

$115,183 交易量

<1%

亞歷克斯·帕迪利亞

$131,647 交易量

<1%

安東尼奧·維拉瑞戈薩

$53,357 交易量

<1%

Butch Ware

$89,627 交易量

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$58,335 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell at 53% to win California's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by his surge in the latest Emerson College poll released March 11 showing him leading the June nonpartisan top-two primary with 25% undecided voters. Incumbent Gavin Newsom's term limit has opened a crowded field of eight Democrats—including billionaire Tom Steyer (12%) and Steve Hilton (10%, Republican commentator)—and two Republicans, splitting progressive support and raising Democratic advancement risks. Recent attacks on Swalwell from left and right over residency claims and missed House votes have not dented his position, while Steyer's self-funding bolsters his second-place standing; the general election follows November 3 if no majority emerges in the primary.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell at 53% to win California's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by his surge in the latest Emerson College poll released March 11 showing him leading the June nonpartisan top-two primary with 25% undecided voters. Incumbent Gavin Newsom's term limit has opened a crowded field of eight Democrats—including billionaire Tom Steyer (12%) and Steve Hilton (10%, Republican commentator)—and two Republicans, splitting progressive support and raising Democratic advancement risks. Recent attacks on Swalwell from left and right over residency claims and missed House votes have not dented his position, while Steyer's self-funding bolsters his second-place standing; the general election follows November 3 if no majority emerges in the primary.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell at 53% to win California's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by his surge in the latest Emerson College poll released March 11 showing him leading the June nonpartisan top-two primary with 25% undecided voters. Incumbent Gavin Newsom's term limit has opened a crowded field of eight Democrats—including billionaire Tom Steyer (12%) and Steve Hilton (10%, Republican commentator)—and two Republicans, splitting progressive support and raising Democratic advancement risks. Recent attacks on Swalwell from left and right over residency claims and missed House votes have not dented his position, while Steyer's self-funding bolsters his second-place standing; the general election follows November 3 if no majority emerges in the primary.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell at 53% to win California's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by his surge in the latest Emerson College poll released March 11 showing him leading the June nonpartisan top-two primary with 25% undecided voters. Incumbent Gavin Newsom's term limit has opened a crowded field of eight Democrats—including billionaire Tom Steyer (12%) and Steve Hilton (10%, Republican commentator)—and two Republicans, splitting progressive support and raising Democratic advancement risks. Recent attacks on Swalwell from left and right over residency claims and missed House votes have not dented his position, while Steyer's self-funding bolsters his second-place standing; the general election follows November 3 if no majority emerges in the primary.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"加州州長選舉獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "埃里克·斯沃韋爾" at 53%, followed by "湯姆·斯泰爾" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "加州州長選舉獲勝者" has generated $6.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "加州州長選舉獲勝者," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "加州州長選舉獲勝者" is "埃里克·斯沃韋爾" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "湯姆·斯泰爾" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "加州州長選舉獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.