Recent polls from late March, including Nexus/BTG, Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, with margins of 2-5.8% between the top two amid a fragmented field of candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and others. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 failed to consolidate the right, maintaining the tight race and low odds of any outright 50%+ victory. Trader consensus reflects this polling average, pricing Lula da Silva's narrow <5% margin lead at 40% implied probability, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% at 23.5%, as the October 4 first round approaches with high uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 34%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 24%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 19%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10% 8.0%
$206,675 交易量
$206,675 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
7%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
3%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
19%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
40%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
5%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
8%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
24%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
6%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
2%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
6%
其他
9%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 34%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 24%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 19%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10% 8.0%
$206,675 交易量
$206,675 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
$3,572 交易量
7%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
$1,343 交易量
3%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
$2,034 交易量
19%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
$1,625 交易量
40%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
$734 交易量
5%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
$754 交易量
8%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
$1,584 交易量
24%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
$192,744 交易量
6%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
$536 交易量
2%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
$823 交易量
6%
其他
$926 交易量
9%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late March, including Nexus/BTG, Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, with margins of 2-5.8% between the top two amid a fragmented field of candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and others. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 failed to consolidate the right, maintaining the tight race and low odds of any outright 50%+ victory. Trader consensus reflects this polling average, pricing Lula da Silva's narrow <5% margin lead at 40% implied probability, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% at 23.5%, as the October 4 first round approaches with high uncertainty.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$206,675結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late March, including Nexus/BTG, Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, with margins of 2-5.8% between the top two amid a fragmented field of candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and others. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 failed to consolidate the right, maintaining the tight race and low odds of any outright 50%+ victory. Trader consensus reflects this polling average, pricing Lula da Silva's narrow <5% margin lead at 40% implied probability, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% at 23.5%, as the October 4 first round approaches with high uncertainty.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$206,675結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from late March, including Nexus/BTG, Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, with margins of 2-5.8% between the top two amid a fragmented field of candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and others. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 failed to consolidate the right, maintaining the tight race and low odds of any outright 50%+ victory. Trader consensus reflects this polling average, pricing Lula da Silva's narrow <5% margin lead at 40% implied probability, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% at 23.5%, as the October 4 first round approaches with high uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
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Frequently Asked Questions