Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at 0.3% month-over-month, versus consensus of 0.2%, has anchored trader focus on persistence in services prices amid elevated gasoline and shelter costs. Analyst models from firms like MUFG and TD Securities cluster September forecasts near 0.23–0.30%, aligning with the market-implied probabilities favoring 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes. Core goods deflation in used vehicles and apparel continues to offset services momentum, while the Cleveland Fed nowcast points to a 2.39% year-over-year pace. The October 14 release follows the September FOMC decision, leaving scope for volatility from tariff effects or labor-market data revisions to shift the distribution around these central outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2% 35%
0.3% 21%
0.1% 12%
≤0.0% 10%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
10%
0.1%
12%
0.2%
35%
0.3%
21%
0.4%
8%
0.5%
2%
0.6%+
5%
0.2% 35%
0.3% 21%
0.1% 12%
≤0.0% 10%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
$79 Vol.
10%
0.1%
$241 Vol.
12%
0.2%
$1,436 Vol.
35%
0.3%
$1,738 Vol.
21%
0.4%
$55 Vol.
8%
0.5%
$118 Vol.
2%
0.6%+
$162 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at 0.3% month-over-month, versus consensus of 0.2%, has anchored trader focus on persistence in services prices amid elevated gasoline and shelter costs. Analyst models from firms like MUFG and TD Securities cluster September forecasts near 0.23–0.30%, aligning with the market-implied probabilities favoring 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes. Core goods deflation in used vehicles and apparel continues to offset services momentum, while the Cleveland Fed nowcast points to a 2.39% year-over-year pace. The October 14 release follows the September FOMC decision, leaving scope for volatility from tariff effects or labor-market data revisions to shift the distribution around these central outcomes.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$3,827End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at 0.3% month-over-month, versus consensus of 0.2%, has anchored trader focus on persistence in services prices amid elevated gasoline and shelter costs. Analyst models from firms like MUFG and TD Securities cluster September forecasts near 0.23–0.30%, aligning with the market-implied probabilities favoring 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes. Core goods deflation in used vehicles and apparel continues to offset services momentum, while the Cleveland Fed nowcast points to a 2.39% year-over-year pace. The October 14 release follows the September FOMC decision, leaving scope for volatility from tariff effects or labor-market data revisions to shift the distribution around these central outcomes.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$3,827End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at 0.3% month-over-month, versus consensus of 0.2%, has anchored trader focus on persistence in services prices amid elevated gasoline and shelter costs. Analyst models from firms like MUFG and TD Securities cluster September forecasts near 0.23–0.30%, aligning with the market-implied probabilities favoring 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes. Core goods deflation in used vehicles and apparel continues to offset services momentum, while the Cleveland Fed nowcast points to a 2.39% year-over-year pace. The October 14 release follows the September FOMC decision, leaving scope for volatility from tariff effects or labor-market data revisions to shift the distribution around these central outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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