Trader consensus gives a 76.5% implied probability to "No" on a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the absence of escalatory military signals from the White House, State Department, or Pentagon amid a policy pivot toward sanctions, diplomacy, and multilateralism. Following Venezuela's disputed July 2024 election, the U.S. intensified targeted sanctions on Maduro allies and recognized opposition claims without invasion threats, while recent Haiti stabilization relies on a Kenyan-led multinational force rather than unilateral U.S. troops. Mexican cartel violence has spurred cross-border drone strike discussions but faces congressional war powers hurdles and public aversion to ground interventions, echoing no regional invasions since Panama in 1989. No scheduled summits or crises signal shifts, underscoring low strategic imperatives for boots-on-the-ground action.