The Lebanese government's February announcement of a four-month timeline for the second phase of Hezbollah disarmament—focusing on weapons between the Litani and Awali rivers—has faced staunch rejection from Hezbollah leadership, who deem it a violation of their role amid ongoing tensions. This follows a disputed completion of the first phase south of the Litani by late 2025 under a U.S.-French-brokered ceasefire. In early March, the Lebanese army seized Hezbollah rocket launchers, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam reiterated disarmament demands on March 23, slamming the group for provoking war with Israel. However, an escalating conflict since March 2, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, has heightened barriers to compliance, with no verified full disarmament as diplomatic pressures mount ahead of potential June deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРазоружит ли Хезболла...?
Разоружит ли Хезболла...?
$923,734 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
31 марта
<1%
31 декабря
31%
$923,734 Объем
31 марта
$906,592 Объем
<1%
31 декабря
$17,142 Объем
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.The Lebanese government's February announcement of a four-month timeline for the second phase of Hezbollah disarmament—focusing on weapons between the Litani and Awali rivers—has faced staunch rejection from Hezbollah leadership, who deem it a violation of their role amid ongoing tensions. This follows a disputed completion of the first phase south of the Litani by late 2025 under a U.S.-French-brokered ceasefire. In early March, the Lebanese army seized Hezbollah rocket launchers, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam reiterated disarmament demands on March 23, slamming the group for provoking war with Israel. However, an escalating conflict since March 2, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, has heightened barriers to compliance, with no verified full disarmament as diplomatic pressures mount ahead of potential June deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET
Объем
$923,734Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Оспаривается
Предложенный исход: Нет
Окончательный спор
Окончательный
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.The Lebanese government's February announcement of a four-month timeline for the second phase of Hezbollah disarmament—focusing on weapons between the Litani and Awali rivers—has faced staunch rejection from Hezbollah leadership, who deem it a violation of their role amid ongoing tensions. This follows a disputed completion of the first phase south of the Litani by late 2025 under a U.S.-French-brokered ceasefire. In early March, the Lebanese army seized Hezbollah rocket launchers, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam reiterated disarmament demands on March 23, slamming the group for provoking war with Israel. However, an escalating conflict since March 2, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, has heightened barriers to compliance, with no verified full disarmament as diplomatic pressures mount ahead of potential June deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Объем
$923,734Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Оспаривается
Предложенный исход: Нет
Окончательный спор
Окончательный
The Lebanese government's February announcement of a four-month timeline for the second phase of Hezbollah disarmament—focusing on weapons between the Litani and Awali rivers—has faced staunch rejection from Hezbollah leadership, who deem it a violation of their role amid ongoing tensions. This follows a disputed completion of the first phase south of the Litani by late 2025 under a U.S.-French-brokered ceasefire. In early March, the Lebanese army seized Hezbollah rocket launchers, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam reiterated disarmament demands on March 23, slamming the group for provoking war with Israel. However, an escalating conflict since March 2, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, has heightened barriers to compliance, with no verified full disarmament as diplomatic pressures mount ahead of potential June deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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