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Политика·Трамп

Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?

Market icon
Политика·Трамп

Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?

Кевин Уорш 94.5%

Джуди Шелтон 1.3%

Мишель Боумен 1.3%

Стивен Миран <1%

Polymarket

$32,264,755 Объем

Кевин Уорш 94.5%

Джуди Шелтон 1.3%

Мишель Боумен 1.3%

Стивен Миран <1%

Polymarket

$32,264,755 Объем

Кевин Уорш

$6,750,732 Объем

95%

Джуди Шелтон

$13,701,871 Объем

1%

Кевин Хассетт

$1,344,944 Объем

<1%

Кристофер Уоллер

$1,425,892 Объем

<1%

Джером Пауэлл

$1,233,173 Объем

<1%

Стивен Миран

$1,028,566 Объем

1%

Скотт Бессент

$3,393,538 Объем

<1%

Рик Рейдер

$919,359 Объем

1%

Мишель Боумен

$2,469,450 Объем

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh holds commanding trader consensus at over 94% implied probability for confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, driven by strong GOP Senate support and the Senate Banking Committee scheduling his confirmation hearing for April 21, just weeks before Jerome Powell's term ends on May 15. Recent momentum includes Warsh's asset disclosures exceeding $130 million with divestment pledges, alongside White House confidence and endorsements like Scott Bessent's prediction of approval amid procedural advances following earlier delays. Opposition from some Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis—tied to a DOJ probe into Powell—and Democrats persists, but traders view these as surmountable given Republican majorities. Powell has pledged to remain interim Chair if needed until 2028 as a governor, while low-probability shifts could arise from hearing surprises, economic shocks like energy price surges, or a withdrawn nomination.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$32,264,755
Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh holds commanding trader consensus at over 94% implied probability for confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, driven by strong GOP Senate support and the Senate Banking Committee scheduling his confirmation hearing for April 21, just weeks before Jerome Powell's term ends on May 15. Recent momentum includes Warsh's asset disclosures exceeding $130 million with divestment pledges, alongside White House confidence and endorsements like Scott Bessent's prediction of approval amid procedural advances following earlier delays. Opposition from some Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis—tied to a DOJ probe into Powell—and Democrats persists, but traders view these as surmountable given Republican majorities. Powell has pledged to remain interim Chair if needed until 2028 as a governor, while low-probability shifts could arise from hearing surprises, economic shocks like energy price surges, or a withdrawn nomination.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$32,264,755
Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Кевин Уорш» с 95%, за ним следует «Джуди Шелтон» с 1%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 95¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 95%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $32.3 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 4, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» — «Кевин Уорш» с 95%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 95%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Джуди Шелтон» с 1%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.