Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a slim 51.5% implied probability to win Senate control in the 2026 midterms, capturing the razor-thin dynamics of battleground races in Michigan's open seat after Gary Peters' retirement, Maine where Susan Collins faces strong challengers, North Carolina's contest showing Democrat Roy Cooper up 49-41 in a recent poll, and Ohio's special election with Republican Jon Husted edging Democrat Sherrod Brown 46-44. Republicans benefit from a favorable map defending fewer vulnerable seats amid their current 53-47 majority, but recent House GOP rejection of a bipartisan Senate DHS funding deal highlights internal divisions over spending and shutdown risks, amplifying Democratic gains in generic congressional ballot polls averaging a +4 Democratic lead. Key tipping factors include upcoming primaries, candidate recruitments in tossups, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval amid foreign policy tensions like Iran.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая партия победит в Сенате в 2026 году?
Какая партия победит в Сенате в 2026 году?
$1,328,647 Объем
$1,328,647 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Заработай 4 %
Демократическая партия
52%
Республиканская партия
49%
$1,328,647 Объем
$1,328,647 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Заработай 4 %
Демократическая партия
$632,090 Объем
52%
Республиканская партия
$696,556 Объем
49%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a slim 51.5% implied probability to win Senate control in the 2026 midterms, capturing the razor-thin dynamics of battleground races in Michigan's open seat after Gary Peters' retirement, Maine where Susan Collins faces strong challengers, North Carolina's contest showing Democrat Roy Cooper up 49-41 in a recent poll, and Ohio's special election with Republican Jon Husted edging Democrat Sherrod Brown 46-44. Republicans benefit from a favorable map defending fewer vulnerable seats amid their current 53-47 majority, but recent House GOP rejection of a bipartisan Senate DHS funding deal highlights internal divisions over spending and shutdown risks, amplifying Democratic gains in generic congressional ballot polls averaging a +4 Democratic lead. Key tipping factors include upcoming primaries, candidate recruitments in tossups, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval amid foreign policy tensions like Iran.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Открытие рынка: Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ET
Объем
$1,328,647Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a slim 51.5% implied probability to win Senate control in the 2026 midterms, capturing the razor-thin dynamics of battleground races in Michigan's open seat after Gary Peters' retirement, Maine where Susan Collins faces strong challengers, North Carolina's contest showing Democrat Roy Cooper up 49-41 in a recent poll, and Ohio's special election with Republican Jon Husted edging Democrat Sherrod Brown 46-44. Republicans benefit from a favorable map defending fewer vulnerable seats amid their current 53-47 majority, but recent House GOP rejection of a bipartisan Senate DHS funding deal highlights internal divisions over spending and shutdown risks, amplifying Democratic gains in generic congressional ballot polls averaging a +4 Democratic lead. Key tipping factors include upcoming primaries, candidate recruitments in tossups, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval amid foreign policy tensions like Iran.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Объем
$1,328,647Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2025, 3:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a slim 51.5% implied probability to win Senate control in the 2026 midterms, capturing the razor-thin dynamics of battleground races in Michigan's open seat after Gary Peters' retirement, Maine where Susan Collins faces strong challengers, North Carolina's contest showing Democrat Roy Cooper up 49-41 in a recent poll, and Ohio's special election with Republican Jon Husted edging Democrat Sherrod Brown 46-44. Republicans benefit from a favorable map defending fewer vulnerable seats amid their current 53-47 majority, but recent House GOP rejection of a bipartisan Senate DHS funding deal highlights internal divisions over spending and shutdown risks, amplifying Democratic gains in generic congressional ballot polls averaging a +4 Democratic lead. Key tipping factors include upcoming primaries, candidate recruitments in tossups, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval amid foreign policy tensions like Iran.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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