Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 85% implied probability to win House control in the November 2026 midterms, driven by Republicans' slim current majority of around 218-215 seats and historical midterm penalties where the president's party—here, Trump's Republicans—typically loses 20-30 seats. Recent generic ballot polls reinforce this, with the New York Times tracker showing Democratic leads of 2-11 points in March surveys, including Quantus (+6) and Quinnipiac (+11), though YouGov's March 20-23 poll narrowed the edge to +3 amid rising GOP support. Cook Political Report's March 12 ratings project a 218-217 Democratic majority after shifts in districts like TX-23 and CA-48, with Sabato's Crystal Ball updating March 26 underscoring competitive battlegrounds. Primaries underway could further clarify paths to victory in swing districts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая партия победит в Палате представителей в 2026 году?
Какая партия победит в Палате представителей в 2026 году?
$4,023,922 Объем
$4,023,922 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Заработай 4 %
Демократическая партия
85%
Республиканская партия
16%
$4,023,922 Объем
$4,023,922 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Заработай 4 %
Демократическая партия
$2,037,359 Объем
85%
Республиканская партия
$1,986,563 Объем
16%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 85% implied probability to win House control in the November 2026 midterms, driven by Republicans' slim current majority of around 218-215 seats and historical midterm penalties where the president's party—here, Trump's Republicans—typically loses 20-30 seats. Recent generic ballot polls reinforce this, with the New York Times tracker showing Democratic leads of 2-11 points in March surveys, including Quantus (+6) and Quinnipiac (+11), though YouGov's March 20-23 poll narrowed the edge to +3 amid rising GOP support. Cook Political Report's March 12 ratings project a 218-217 Democratic majority after shifts in districts like TX-23 and CA-48, with Sabato's Crystal Ball updating March 26 underscoring competitive battlegrounds. Primaries underway could further clarify paths to victory in swing districts.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Открытие рынка: Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Объем
$4,023,922Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 85% implied probability to win House control in the November 2026 midterms, driven by Republicans' slim current majority of around 218-215 seats and historical midterm penalties where the president's party—here, Trump's Republicans—typically loses 20-30 seats. Recent generic ballot polls reinforce this, with the New York Times tracker showing Democratic leads of 2-11 points in March surveys, including Quantus (+6) and Quinnipiac (+11), though YouGov's March 20-23 poll narrowed the edge to +3 amid rising GOP support. Cook Political Report's March 12 ratings project a 218-217 Democratic majority after shifts in districts like TX-23 and CA-48, with Sabato's Crystal Ball updating March 26 underscoring competitive battlegrounds. Primaries underway could further clarify paths to victory in swing districts.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Объем
$4,023,922Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 85% implied probability to win House control in the November 2026 midterms, driven by Republicans' slim current majority of around 218-215 seats and historical midterm penalties where the president's party—here, Trump's Republicans—typically loses 20-30 seats. Recent generic ballot polls reinforce this, with the New York Times tracker showing Democratic leads of 2-11 points in March surveys, including Quantus (+6) and Quinnipiac (+11), though YouGov's March 20-23 poll narrowed the edge to +3 amid rising GOP support. Cook Political Report's March 12 ratings project a 218-217 Democratic majority after shifts in districts like TX-23 and CA-48, with Sabato's Crystal Ball updating March 26 underscoring competitive battlegrounds. Primaries underway could further clarify paths to victory in swing districts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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